$10 - TPTK facing overbet shove+call on the flop

[Dima2000123]

My reads: UTG+1 seems a little fishy to me, SB seems tight. It seems like TPTK is no good here, but I'm not sure.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop

UTG (t1485)
UTG+1 (t1830)
MP1 (t1380)
MP2 (t1650)
Hero (t2460)
CO (t720)
Button (t1440)
SB (t1065)
BB (t1470)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t120, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t100, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t400) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t945 (All-In)</font>, UTG+1 calls t945, Hero ?

[luthar]

Fold preflop
Fold flop UTG+1 has TT+

[Collin Moshman]

Hi Dima,

I have to agree with luthar that you should fold this one pre-flop. If everyone folds to you, you could reasonably enter this pot from MP3 with a raise to 120. But once UTG+1 enters with a raise, you need a much stronger hand to put in your 120 (A Ko would be a classic example).

The problem with playing these often 2nd-best high card hands is that they tend to put you in difficult post-flop situations that are best avoided in low-blind SNG play. Here, for instance, is your TPTK good?

Let us now try to answer this new question ...
First note that if you call, while you appear to be getting close to 5:2 (2300:950) on your overcall, UTG+1 has pot-committed himself by investing another 945 in this pot. So if you play, it is most likely for an extra 1710 instead of just 945.

This addition of a sidepot is good if you are behind the SB but in front of UTG+1. But here that is very unlikely to be the case. The SB's actions so far indicate that he is being over-enthusiastic with a random jack, e.g., TJs or KJo. (With a weaker hand than some variant of TP he probably wouldn't have shoved, and if he had a set, he would rarely play so fast against two opponents.)

UTG+1, by raising pre-flop and smooth-calling at the flop, probably has you at least tied with A J, but will often show down with an overpair. This latter possibility is too strong to ignore even for a fishy player, and since it places you as about a 4:1 underdog, I would fold here post-flop as well.

Best Regards,
Collin

[Dima2000123]

Thank you for detailed analysis. I realize now that calling pre-flop with AJo was a mistake. Even though I'm a LAG and I'm not at all afraid to mix it up early, even for a good LAG this is probably a very dangerous hand.

After the flop, I thought exactly the same thing you said. Even if I can beat SB, the call from UTG+1 screams overpair, so I'm probably way behind, and behind against the wrong stack. It turned out that it was not the case, SB had AJ also, while UTG+1 had 99, so I made a bad fold, but I guess that just shows how easy it is to make a bad decision in hindsight either way with iffy hands like AJo.