#11
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
don't know exactly how aggro he is, but I'd say a standard range for an aggro opponent hu here is draw/random two pair set, and a slowplayed overpair (very unlikely). He also has a straight bluff a small % of the time but I think he would bet bigger on the turn with a bluff unless he post-oaks. Given that weighted range, I think this is a turn fold.
dlpnyc21 |
#12
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
I think that a random two pair like 45 bets a lot bigger on turn for fear of being counterfeited or for fear of a spade coming and either giving him the losing hand or killing his action. I also think that top pair strong kicker bets bigger on the turn for similar reasons. As to whether this could be a stone-cold bluff I think the chances are probably better than you think but I agree it is not a huge part of his range.
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#13
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
[ QUOTE ]
I think that a random two pair like 45 bets a lot bigger on turn for fear of being counterfeited or for fear of a spade coming and either giving him the losing hand or killing his action. I also think that top pair strong kicker bets bigger on the turn for similar reasons. As to whether this could be a stone-cold bluff I think the chances are probably better than you think but I agree it is not a huge part of his range. [/ QUOTE ] While this may be true (I don't really think it is), it is not an important enough point to hinge your decision on it. |
#14
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think that a random two pair like 45 bets a lot bigger on turn for fear of being counterfeited or for fear of a spade coming and either giving him the losing hand or killing his action. I also think that top pair strong kicker bets bigger on the turn for similar reasons. As to whether this could be a stone-cold bluff I think the chances are probably better than you think but I agree it is not a huge part of his range. [/ QUOTE ] While this may be true (I don't really think it is), it is not an important enough point to hinge your decision on it. [/ QUOTE ] It may not be 100 percent true but for the most part I think it is a pretty good assesment of his play. While he is very aggressive he's really not that tricky or good for that matter. |
#15
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
[ QUOTE ]
all in on flop. with tuan le i am 95 % he r/r p/f w/ jacks and up. im very confident ur ahead and think u should jam it. [/ QUOTE ] shut up limit newbie |
#16
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
I don't know what his betsizing his like, but this turn bet looks like he wants you to shove.
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#17
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
i think you are vastly vastly ahead of his range here, and with these stacks, i think a shove is far preferable to "seeing what falls on the turn"
i think it's a great two-way bet in that he folds a couple worse hands like better tens, T8, JT, QT quite often. but i think far more often he's priced in to call his 15 outer hand when he would have actually c/f had he missed on the river. i like a shove much much much more than a call, i think the only question is between shove and fold. |
#18
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
Fslexcduck I like your reasoning, the only problem is that with the pot odds being offered I'm not sure how likely he is to fold JT or QT.
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#19
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
[ QUOTE ]
As to whether this could be a stone-cold bluff... [/ QUOTE ] This would be an extremally bad board to through a stone-cold bluff at since it contains both flush and straight draws so I don't think it is one. |
#20
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Re: Heads up vs. Tuan Le
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] As to whether this could be a stone-cold bluff... [/ QUOTE ] This would be an extremally bad board to through a stone-cold bluff at since it contains both flush and straight draws so I don't think it is one. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, cause people never bluff on scary boards aginst pfr's [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] |
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