Theory on re-steal from BB against Button opener.

[Fireball_AA]

I have been thinking about the re-raising range you should have from the big blind against a button or CO standard 3 x BB raise.

Since it's a theoretical question, let's keep it simple and see it in term of BB.

Hero and Vilain have 15 BB.

Vilain raises to 3 BB from Button, what should be our re-raising range?

First let's put a raising range to Vilain: Any PP, Any Ace, K6s+, K9o+, Any broadway, sc 56+, 89o, T9o, J9o. This is 31.5% of the hands which seems reasonable to me.

Second, let's see what he calls a re-raise all-in from us with? He will have to call 12BB to win 19 BB (3 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 15) so 1:1.6 or he would need 38.7% equity.

Let's put him on 22+, A7s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo which is 14.3% of the hands.

Third, we have to determine what hand we need to make it a break-even play (assuming antes equal SB).

14BB = 19BB x FE + 31BB x (1 - FE) x Equity

We know our FE is 1-14.3/31.5 = 54.6%

So the Equity needed is 25.8%.

Let's see the hands that are 25.8% against vilain calling range: 72o is 26.0%, 23o is 25.9%! So any 2 cards are good enough for a re-steal. In fact any two card is 34.5% vs his range so we make 1.2 BB on average.

There can be a tremendous amount of scenarios, but let's see what if his opening range is 20.1% of hands (Any PP, A6+, A7o+, KT+, QTs+, QJo+, JTs) and his calling range is 11.9% of hands (66+, A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+).

We only need 34.0% equity. Any two card is 32.8% against his calling range. Any two cards but J4o-, T4o-, 94o-, 84o-, 73o-, 63o-, 52o, 42o is break-even! There might be other combinations of worst cards that you can take out, but anyway it is pretty much the bottom 15% that you should throw away.

Thoughts?

[Fireball_AA]

No comments from anyone?

Good or Bad? Realistic or not?

Anything?

[grafyx]

I think getting someone to fold 50% of the hands they open on the button with 15bb stack is going to be hard these days. I call close to 100%.

[Soulman]

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I think getting someone to fold 50% of the hands they open on the button with 15bb stack is going to be hard these days. I call close to 100%.

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Agreed. I'm very wary of raising vs 15 BB stacks (especially when I have a 15 BB stack myself), at least if I know they're good...since it's pretty likely you'll get a shove in your face. People call way wider too, so 50% is probably way too high.

In general, I think restealing is a bit too situation-specific for a formula to be much help at all.

[Fireball_AA]

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I think getting someone to fold 50% of the hands they open on the button with 15bb stack is going to be hard these days. I call close to 100%.

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So I guess your opening range might be much tighter...like top 15% only?

If you open with QTo, you would call a push? 78s?

Why not open-push then?

What ranges are thinking of for opening and calling a push?

[RichC.]

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I think getting someone to fold 50% of the hands they open on the button with 15bb stack is going to be hard these days. I call close to 100%.

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Agreed. I'm very wary of raising vs 15 BB stacks (especially when I have a 15 BB stack myself), at least if I know they're good...since it's pretty likely you'll get a shove in your face. People call way wider too, so 50% is probably way too high.

In general, I think restealing is a bit too situation-specific for a formula to be much help at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of what you say here is very true. A decent example that I can think of is a hand I played last night. I had ~11bbs in the BB, folds to SB with ~25bbs. He raises to 600, I shove and he instacalls with K9o. This has to be at the lowest parts of a calling range, but it just shows that this player in particular had a very wide calling range. Sure this is a BvB hand, but I would bet he calls with this hand from the Button and CO too.

[SnareSound]

I feel like these ranges on both ends can really vary based on past action. If villain has raised on the button the last 5 times in that situation, I only need to be holding ATC to be doing the raising, and it's possible he lays down 66-99. Next orbit he could be calling with 55 even though his odds are even worse. In some cases when I'm in the reraising position, I'm choosing timing and randomness. Seems like logic is too predictable sometimes. How much do my ranges change when he folded last time?

I play lower level MTTs, so maybe choosing every third time to repop is as much +EV as deciding on the moment or even a snap judgment based on the calcs above.

Bottom line is sometimes I feel like logic is my enemy in these positions, but maybe that's the fish.

[Fireball_AA]

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A decent example that I can think of is a hand I played last night. I had ~11bbs in the BB, folds to SB with ~25bbs. He raises to 600, I shove and he instacalls with K9o. This has to be at the lowest parts of a calling range, but it just shows that this player in particular had a very wide calling range. Sure this is a BvB hand, but I would bet he calls with this hand from the Button and CO too.

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He has to call 8 BB to win 22BB, he only needs 36% equity. It's different than than needing 40-45%. But I get your point.

I would like to have some ranges from some of you and use it in this and see what we should be pushing with even if we know they call light.

[grafyx]

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I feel like these ranges on both ends can really vary based on past action. If villain has raised on the button the last 5 times in that situation, I only need to be holding ATC to be doing the raising, and it's possible he lays down 66-99

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No one in their right mind is laying down 99 to a bb resteal with 15bb stacks.

edit: or 88 or 77...

[grafyx]

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I think getting someone to fold 50% of the hands they open on the button with 15bb stack is going to be hard these days. I call close to 100%.

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So I guess your opening range might be much tighter...like top 15% only?

If you open with QTo, you would call a push? 78s?


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If I raise QT, then I'm probably calling QT. If I don't want to call, I'll usually just open fold.

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Why not open-push then?


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Then BB doesn't have a chance to resteal with J6o