Thinking about the Yankees (Possibly LDO Content)

[phillydilly]

So, it seems like I see every day the yankees are scoring 10 runs a game and killing people. But, then you look and they are a 6-6 team. So with that and seeing Whipsaw's fading the yankees thread, decided to look closer at the yanks. Feel free to skip to the end of this thread for the cliff notes.

ok, here are the yanks games so far
4/2/07 TB (Kazmir) v Pavano W 9-5
4/5/07 TB (seo) v Pettite L 7-6
4/6/07 Bal (Loewen) v Mussina L 6-4
4/7/07 Bal (Trachsel) v Igawa W 10-7
4/8/07 Bal (Bedard) v Rasner L 6-4
4/9/07 MIn (Ponson) v Pavano W 8-2
4/10/07 Min (Bonser) v Pettite W 10-1
4/11/07 MIn (Ortiz) v Mussina L 5-1
4/13/07 Oak (Haren) v Igawa L 5-4
4/14/07 Oak (Blanton) v Rasner W 4-3
4/15/07 Oak (Harden) v Pettite L 4-5
4/17/07 Cle (Westbrook) v Wright W 10-3

Now, take a look at the opponent's starter and era when the yanks win vs when the yanks lose

Opp overall ERA when yanks Win
Kazmir 4.95
Trachsel 5.19
Ponson 8.18
Bonser 6.89
Blanton 4.00
Westbrook 12.08


Opp overall ERA when yanks Loss
Seo 7.71
Loewen 3.95
Bedard 5.09
Ortiz 2.05
Haren 2.00
Harden 1.42

Totals:
when yanks win 4 of 6 have era over 5, 0/6 have era under 4
when yanks lose 4 of 6 have era under 4

Another thing to look at runs scored in wins vs losses
Runs in Wins
9
10
8
10
4
10

Runs in Losses (Runs scored against starting pitcher)
6 (5)
4 (2)
4 (3)
1 (1)
4 (3)
4 (1)

Totals:
they have a single win if they score less than 8 runs
they have a five losses where they scored 4 or less runs

Conclusions:
The yanks cannot hit good pitching. The yanks have to hit a ton to win.
I think any time the yanks are facing a starting pitcher with an era under 4.00, its a very strong bet against the yanks.

and if this is LDO content, I don't care, i'm bored at work.

*disclaimer: I know its early in the season and with only a few starts, getting shelled once by the yanks may be the reason for a pitchers ballooned era

[knicknut]

You mean when teams score a lot of runs, they tend to win more than when they score very few runs?

[ QUOTE ]
disclaimer: I know its early in the season and with only a few starts, getting shelled once by the yanks may be the reason for a pitchers ballooned era

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've pretty much got it. Does this analysis work if you use last season's ERAs for the SPs? Do they hit poor starters over the past year significantly better than good starters?

[onlinebeginner]

i remember seeing these stats presented at the end of the season two seasons ago (i don't remember exact numbers)

arod had hit poor pitchers as compared to good pitchers at an alarmingly better rate

i remember sheffield had roughly the same numbers against good pitching as against bad pitching

Disclaimer: two years ago

i think this is good analysis and you shuold look at their hitters over their careers to increase the sample size... definately a good theory that is worth looking into

[Thremp]

WTF?

Doesn't everyone hit bad pitchers more often than good pitchers... Ergo why they are considered good and bad?!?

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF?

Doesn't everyone hit bad pitchers more often than good pitchers... Ergo why they are considered good and bad?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the OP is saying that they possibly destroy bad pitchers more than other teams do and struggle against good pitchers more than other teams do.

[onlinebeginner]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF?

Doesn't everyone hit bad pitchers more often than good pitchers... Ergo why they are considered good and bad?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

read my post above, i explained it pretty well and gave an example

Summary: sometimes the gap for some players is much bigger than others

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF?

Doesn't everyone hit bad pitchers more often than good pitchers... Ergo why they are considered good and bad?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

read my post above, i explained it pretty well and gave an example

Summary: sometimes the gap for some players is much bigger than others

[/ QUOTE ]

How about looking into some correlated parlays? Yanks/Over Opponents/Under?