[400nl] Easy fold?

[Vammakala]

Alrighty, soooooo here's what I did and why - I'll start with the why:
1) He only called from the BB. He hasn't been overly aggressive but I think he would reraise something like very strong aces etc. With his level of activeness, I'd say this can be anything from suited connectors to 99-.
2) He check-calls very draw heavy flop. I'd imagine him putting in a raise (maybe c/r) with something like overs+fd or a jack. After he check-calls, I think the most likely holding for him is a draw or a weak jack.
3) He checks turn A. If he had a draw like KQ, he might be going for a checkraise here, but KQ is like the only hand I actually was worried about. I check behind to keep the pot manageable.
4) He leads river strongly for $60 into a $84 pot. Okay so let's see what he could do this with:

* A good jack? I think that from how the hand went down, it's likely that he could put me on a jack. It's also very obvious what his bet is representing - he's representing a jack. So why would I call sucha big bet? I perceive him as a bad player and I think the majority of these active bad players would rather bet smaller because they want me to call.

* Strong ace, or a bit weaker ace? Again, from how the hand went down, I might've just checked the turn with a J, because the ace scared me. So logically if he had Ax, he should be worried about Jx and I probably wouldn't call him with anything less when he bets that much, so it would be an okay bet size for a stone cold bluff, altho slightly counter intuitively it looks like one too.

* KQ. The only hand I could think of that he would play for value this way. Obviously it's a risk, but I think that the weighting the other possibilities count together, it's a smaller one.

And what happened:
Hero calls:
Villain shows 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero feels good about himself.

Granted, I might've overanalyzed the situation, I have a tendency to do that, but I was only playing two tables (making the transition from 200nl) so I had time to overthink it through.

[ddubois]

One reason for raising would be to get him to fold his Ac7c-type hands, but I doubt that's a very good reason, especially since that hand probably defensive checks.

[Vammakala]

Yea exactly, I didn't think ace would bet the river because he'd have to be worried about ma boom boom jack

[billyjex]

everytime i call these i lose

its annoying

[Vammakala]

That probably means you're from the other end of the spectrum. I win every time! That's why my own analysis is biased.