KTo - Flop Decision

[22pajo]

Limit: $1/$2
9 players

MP2 (poster) had just sat down so no reads.
MP3 was a donator. cold called lots of flop bets.

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1, folds, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB (poster) checks.
<font color="blue">KTo is not usually a hand i'll play but with so many limpers and a good position i limp</font>

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 7 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button folds, BB calls, UTG folds.
<font color="blue">The pot is offering me 6.75:1 to call 2 here.
But how many outs to the best hand do we have here? J x 4, Can we assign any value to our K outs?
If we only have 4 outs here then this is a clear fold</font>

[MPB]

If you want to assign any value to a K, it could be 1 Out at best.

[Riku]

I would say your J and K outs are 4 outs together.

[heidavey]

i say you have 12.5:2 pot odds and 4 outs for 21.5:2 odds - easy fold.

I don't give any value to your kings because of the multiway pot.

[NIX]

I would count the jacks for basically full outs and the kings for more than zero outs. However, without the odds and potential to be trapped if BB 3bets, I fold the flop.

[tyler_cracker]

wtf guys. all 4 jacks give us the nuts. do you really fear the other combos of KT enough to start discounting outs TO THE NUTS?

this is also a good example of where 13.5:2 != 6.75:1 for the sake of calculating implied odds. if we were getting 6.75:1, we would need to make up ~4 SB on later streets to peel with our 4 out draw. getting 13.5:2, we need to make up ~7SB, a ~75% difference (that's a lot!).

if you don't think BB or anyone else will 3bet here, you can peel and use your position to extract the most/peel again/get the eff out on the big streets.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf guys. all 4 jacks give us the nuts. do you really fear the other combos of KT enough to start discounting outs TO THE NUTS?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can discount them (somewhat) for the possibility that someone flopped a set/two pair and, after we hit our J, they fill up on the river. Reverse implied odds. Although I agree that for all intents &amp; purposes we should be giving ourselves the full 4 gutshot outs, plus maybe 1 out for the K.

With ~5 outs &amp; getting 13.5:2 with the possibility of a 3bet and/or cap behind you (you cannot eliminate this from the equation), this is a clear fold. This scenario is a perfect example of how one "semiloose" flop call can snowball into a much bigger error (if it's 3bet behind us, we then have to call 1 more SB, and then we're getting close to the correct odds to peel again for 1 BB on the turn, etc).

[BigBadBabar]

WE HAVE A GUTSHOT

i coldcall here.
implied odds are massive.
if we don't hit on turn and it's 1 to us we might have odds to peel again. if we don't hit and there's big action, we're out. same on river obv.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

ridiculously easy call...

[fretelöo]

Discipline is teh nutz. Fold.