100 PLO middle set + bare ace, unraised pot OOP

[mxyzptlk]

Glass, I'm not quite getting your message. I wouldn't think of C/Cing the flop and turn hoping for the board to pair. I'm worried that the bet flop, bet turn line will put about 20-40% of my stack in there on turn which makes an uncomfortable river situation if a draw completes. However, if I get 60%+ of my stack in there on the turn, OOP players can't make a scary river bluff (although if they're passive they probably never would anyway). However, bet flop, CR turn is an interesting option if I feel that someone bet the turn, interpreting my check as weakness.

[glass_onion]

Sorry, my brain moves faster than I can type. BY c/c flop, c/c turn I was responding to ribbo's "keep it small" comment, as you can't get it all in the flop (which I also think is not optimal). the only way to 'keep it small' is to c/c flop, c/c turn, as someone is betting this hand on the TURN EVERY TIME, right??? Blank, spade, broadway, etc. They might check a board pair, but we've already talked about that.

And I was saying that that line is awful, and it sounds like you agreee. No implied odds, cant draw profitably.

I see the turn like this.

You are either 75% favorite against a single caller, on a blank
* a 25% dog if the st8 hits
*a 25% dog if the flush hits, but since there is 2+ psb left over, you can easily bluff the flush (BLUSH) and be successful 90% of the time in my experience, and have odds if not
*some of the time you will be drawing to 1 out, but not terrifically often
*if the pot goes multiway with bets and raises on the turn you are morelikely to be against kk than bottom set, and even if you went all in against a made st8 and bottom set, that situation isn't profitable enough to make up for the times you get it in at 3% against KK + made hand (or draw).

At a passive table (making bottom set pushes LESS Likely) I don't see any profitable line here if you don't have the balls to pull a blush. You just don't have the implied odds to hit the FH, you will always be charged on the turn to keep drawing, and sometimes you are up against KK.

[mxyzptlk]

I don't think ribbo was advocating a C/C line, but anyway. The point I'm trying to make here is that I think your flop strategy in these cases should try to set things up for a sizable turn bet on a safe card. As I mentioned before, I think it's bad to have a flop strategy which sets up a turn pot of like $20 if I'm not in position. If I gotta bet $20 on a turn blank, I'm going to have like >$70 left on river, which may put me to a tough decision OOP. In this case, I'd rather CR the turn, which would get in almost my whole stack, but I have no guarantee of a bet. So if I check-call flop, that might result in a turn pot of ~$20 that I can CR a safe card, but now I have no idea if I'm against KK.

Alternatively, I could lead the flop, and get a few callers, resulting a turn pot ~$20-$30, but now leading a safe turn card puts me in the same position as before with tough river decisions. So, here I could try a turn CR, feigning weakness, like I'm on a draw. It might be less likely I'm against KK at this point since I would have probably got a positional raise from KK on the flop.

The other line I was thinking was to try for a small check-raise on the flop, to try to build a multiway pot (like in this situation) of ~$40-50. Now I can make a big turn bet on a safe card, cut my opponents' implied odds on the river, and make my river decisions easy. The other benefit of a small CR on the flop is that it might force KK to reveal itself on the flop, and I can make that turn lead with confidence.

In all these situations, it's important to keep the blush in mind. However, I think it's more convincing if I can make a big bet on the river. At this level there are lots of douches that will call turn with some non-nut flush or call with two pair or something. So if the flush hits on the turn, it may take a big river bet to shake them loose (or I can get paid big if they hit some worse FH). In this case a $40 pr $20 turn pot are both ok. For the $40 pot, I can make a $20 turn bet, and ~$65 river bet (hopefully into $80). Plus the turn bet kinda serves as a blocking bet. For a $20 turn pot, I can just pot both streets.

[85off]

i call the turn hoping for a safe card than CR big on the turn. with that draw heavy board, one call gives people the chance to call. sometimes i would raise the flop and live with the results. but most times call ,CR big on turn

[Elrazor]

I agree with ribbo here - a 1/2-3/4 sized pot bet will define your hand easily enough, and flush out any KK. when they all call this bet you can re-evaluate on the turn, where i will pot any card that doesent make an obvious straight.