99 on the Bubble

[Beachman42]

I don't seem to get many interesting hands to post, but am still thinking about this one . . .

Full Tilt $10 MTT Donkament - 360 runners, 36 pay, 40 left.

Avg chipstack = 13.5K B+E is 400/200/50 or 1,050 in the pot to go . . . (this is such a horrible structure!)

Reads:

<font color="blue"> EP Villian (24,000) </font> - just doubled up AK vs. TT against table (and tourney) CL. This guy seems pretty tight - way too tight for the bubble and has been willing to let go of marginal hands post flop.

<font color="red"> BB villian (28,000) </font> - just lost 12,000 when TT couldn't out-flip AK (see above). Luckbox who keeps calling light and sucking out. Particularly fond of A-rag. Of note to this hand is that he has shown a willingness to defend his blind, esp pushing over limpers.

Hero (~11,000)

I've been right down the middle. Not too many hands, not too few. I've only shown down winners but have bluffed enough flops to get action once the antes kicked in. I'm feeling pressure to exploit the bubble since winning $16 isn't very appealing . . .

<font color="blue"> EP Villian </font> limps (first time for that)
fold, fold, fold

Hero has 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and?

Rem. the <font color="red"> BB villian </font> already has 400 in a 1,500 pot.

While I'm interested in what your action is, I'm more interested in why ou call, raise, or fold.

[blockafor]

I like a raise to 2k. That's pretty sizable and BB might not defend as widely in this spot since it appears to him that you are attacking the limper and not him. And if EP villain is tight, you're also likely to pick up the pot with this raise too.

If you limp, I assume it would be with the intention of limp-re-raising the BB, but stacks are a little awkward for that. Limp-calling the BB is no good because you'd certainly be facing a c-bet and a tough flop decision.

Fold 99 in an unraised pot from late position? Nah.

[Cleverbeans]

Based on your read I would limp with the intention of calling a raise from the BB but letting go if the EP villain sticks around as he might have noticed the BBs habit of defending vs limpers and be attempting to exploit it.

[Jake M.]

You could justify a raise, you could justify a limp. I would not mind limping because you'd just like to flop a 9 and there are not many flops where you will have the overpair. Though raising here may be able to pick up the pot. One thing I have found though is that raising on the bubble in these low stakes tournaments does not really accomplish much. Lots of players tend to stick around and you will most likely get a cold call from someone else now you may have to play the hand not only multi way, but also out of posistion. If this were a larger buy in tournament and people actually cared about the payout (obviously $16 is not motivating enough) then you may be able to pick up the pot preflop with a raise. I just feel in these low stakes tournaments raising here may not be the best idea.

[mlagoo]

raise, call shove from BB unless ep calls/crams overtop

[Mr.Poker]

what seat is hero in?

I think I like a shove here. will give a more detailed explanation tomorrow but got an interview ridiculously early in the morning so going to bed!

[omaha]

Why has villain just limped in? If he has raised everything else, i would assume he might be going for a limp rr, and just call, and go for set value.

It is unlikely that you will get the pot with your raise, against someone utg, and a tenacious blind, who loves his A rag.

[TheFoxNL]

dont raise

imo limp hope the BB leaves you for now
if he raises see what UTG does

[helgefyll]

I agree with you Fox, but if BB checks are you playing 99 solely for set value? Since we really don't know anything about UTG's hand now..

[TheFoxNL]

think about EP
he normally raises but BB is the guy who usually raises against limpers...
and its the first time he limps
his action to me makes him pretty dangerous i would put him at least on a pair like JJ+
and yes i would only play it for set value as we are not shure what EP has