Satellite situation with one player to go on the bubble

[-moe-]

Context:

$3+r satellite to Sunday Million (ie T$215), 13 players left, 12 gets tickets.

The 6 remaining players at the other table all have somewhat healthy stacks, at least so that it lets them wait for someone to be knocked out at my table, so the situation below can be considered in isolation.

Here's the start of the hand:

----8<---- [snip] ----------------------------------------

Pokerstars Game $3+$0 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (15000/30000)
9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Button (104224 in chips)
Seat 2: SB (129680 in chips)
Seat 4: BB (2490 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero (9712 in chips)
Seat 6: UTG+1 (79084 in chips)
Seat 7: MP1 (15300 in chips)
Seat 9: MP2 (54601 in chips)
Button: posts the ante 1500
SB: posts the ante 1500
BB: posts the ante 1500
Hero : posts the ante 1500
UTG+1: posts the ante 1500
MP1: posts the ante 1500
MP2: posts the ante 1500
SB: posts small blind 15000
BB: posts big blind 990 and is all-in

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ 4s 4c ]

----8<---- [snip] ----------------------------------------

What should my action be, and why?

(This may be a no-brainer for experienced sat-players, and if so I apologize for wasting your time. But I'm a greenhorn in these, and I can't make my mind up about this hand.)

[Cornell Fiji]

If you win this hand you still can't survive both blinds. There is no reason to put your tournament life at risk here with a hand that is a dog.

Take your chance in the BB next hand. This is a very easy fold.

A question for the more experienced sat guys is where the cut off is with you getting blinded all-in next hand... I would think QQ+ only but I might be off.

OP: If you have not read them yet, make sure you read the satellite threads in the anthology sticky atop the MTT forum page

[-moe-]

By the way, one more piece of information that may be significant: I would guess that the collective correct play would be for everyone to call here..? That would make it very likely that the BB would lose the hand, and thereby everybody would win their ticket and the game was over.

However, from what I had seen on the bubble so far, that seemed very unlikely to happen, as people seemed intent on just folding into the ticket spots.

[Erlich]

If Hero wins this hand, the tournament is over.


You are only out if BB wins main pot, and someone else wins the side pot.

[Cornell Fiji]

Actually, the correct play for everyone is to fold to the SB.

Everyone (except the SB) should be folding AA here. Even MP1 who will be blinded all in three hands from now

[-moe-]

[ QUOTE ]
If you win this hand you still can't survive both blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure.

This may not make a difference, because my thinking might be flawed here, but: it wouldn't be important to win the hand.

If calling, that would be to lower the current BBs chances of winning it. Note that getting knocked out in the hand wouldn't matter, as long as BB would also get knocked out (with less chips than me at the start of the hand, he'd take 13th, and I would take 12th, if we both lost to a 3rd player).

So the reason I even considered it was that it would lower the BBs chances. Say, if only the SB called, the BB would most likely be 40-60% to win the hand. With my pair in there aswell, his 40-60% would drop down to something like 30-35%, I believe.

Plus, I would still survive to the next hand if BB won, but I took the side pot vs the SB (assuming all other players folded).

So the only outcome that would be bad for me was if BB won, SB had the second best hand, and I had the worst of the three. All other possible outcomes either wins me a ticket, or gets me into the next hand at least as "healthy" as I would be by folding.

[ QUOTE ]
OP: If you have not read them yet, make sure you read the satellite threads in the anthology sticky atop the MTT forum page

[/ QUOTE ]

Will do! Thanks for the advice. (I had managed to overlook those.)

[Mingdu]

I shove this and hope that everyone else calls knowing that either you or the villian are going to get knocked out.

it is 8 v 1 if that happens and your pocket pair are ahead of his ATC. He can have the second best hand at the end and you still win your seat.

If they don't call then he may win and you keep playing ... anything can happen.

Every other player calling virtually guarantees that this is the last hand ... something they all want.