Does anyone really make $ at these???

[unfrgvn]

[ QUOTE ]

this is part of my original point.
What I'm trying to get at is two things:

1) is the variance I'm seeing anywhere close to normal?

- what I'm hearing from you guys is, basically, no. If I have a -3% ROI after 200 games and I can't get ahead, then I'm basically just not playing well enough. Fine, I can understand that, but then that leaves my second point:


[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree that a -3% roi over 200 games guarantees that you are a losing player. You should read the varience faq, as well as some of the threads embedded in here.
Varience Faq

You are likely not a big winner and you may be an even bigger loser. The only way to be sure is to play more and keep full records. Don’t ignore some because you got unlucky or you tilted off a couple buy in’s. That all part of it.

[ QUOTE ]


2) Is there really any room at even small-stakes SNGs for the casual player to be able to expect to walk away with any kind of profit?
- Are the winners at this level using this kind of software all the time? Are they studying 2+2 threads and poker books for 3+ hours a day?



[/ QUOTE ]

I fit this profile. I only play a few SNG’s a week. I only single table. I’m a long term winner over the last 3 years, first at PP and now at UB. I don’t want a lot of stress in what is a hobby for me so I only play low limits.

[ QUOTE ]

I can't tell if this is at all accurate, because, after all, I've played at most 1000 tourneys over the last year and a half, and only started keeping stats in January. Am I totally off base? Are things moving in this direction? Recall my comment about how tight the $5.50s on UB have become over the last couple months. . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

Even the tightness you perceive is a form of variance. I’m sure sometimes your tables get a few early and loose bustouts

My advice is to keep accurate records. Review some hand histories, especially your bust out hands. Post some full hand histories here. I assume if you are single tabling you are not reading 2+2 and watching TV at the same time? If you are, stop. You should be able to get some reads on how loose a player is without software. If you are interested enough to find this website and read a few books, you should be able to beat the $5’s.

[TruFloridaGator]

Keep in mind, a Vol started this thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Expect to want to suck Peyton Manning's dick, sing Rocky Top in the shower, and much worse if you read this thread.

[K䲰䮥n]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that doesn't believe a 10% ROI player can't have a 50-100 buyin downswing hasn't played enough SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. Though 100 BIs is 60% bad cards, 40% tilt (or something like that). Went thru one 96 BI downswing last summer.

[TruFloridaGator]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that doesn't believe a 10% ROI player can't have a 50-100 buyin downswing hasn't played enough SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it "can't" happen, but at what level are you referencing? You aren't a 10% player if you have a 100 buyin swing at many levels.

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that doesn't believe a 10% ROI player can't have a 50-100 buyin downswing hasn't played enough SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it "can't" happen, but at what level are you referencing? You aren't a 10% player if you have a 100 buyin swing at many levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

A player with a 10.45% ROI has about a 0.1% chance of having a 105 buy-in downswing over 2000 sngs.

[TruFloridaGator]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that doesn't believe a 10% ROI player can't have a 50-100 buyin downswing hasn't played enough SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it "can't" happen, but at what level are you referencing? You aren't a 10% player if you have a 100 buyin swing at many levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

A player with a 10.45% ROI has about a 0.1% chance of having a 105 buy-in downswing over 2000 sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, that's why I said, "Not that it can't happen", but there's a good chance tilt/bad play would be contributing to that long of a downswing & then you aren't really a 10% player.

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that doesn't believe a 10% ROI player can't have a 50-100 buyin downswing hasn't played enough SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it "can't" happen, but at what level are you referencing? You aren't a 10% player if you have a 100 buyin swing at many levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

A player with a 10.45% ROI has about a 0.1% chance of having a 105 buy-in downswing over 2000 sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, that's why I said, "Not that it can't happen", but there's a good chance tilt/bad play would be contributing to that long of a downswing & then you aren't really a 10% player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea...I was trying to solidify your point.

[TruFloridaGator]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that doesn't believe a 10% ROI player can't have a 50-100 buyin downswing hasn't played enough SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it "can't" happen, but at what level are you referencing? You aren't a 10% player if you have a 100 buyin swing at many levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

A player with a 10.45% ROI has about a 0.1% chance of having a 105 buy-in downswing over 2000 sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, that's why I said, "Not that it can't happen", but there's a good chance tilt/bad play would be contributing to that long of a downswing & then you aren't really a 10% player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea...I was trying to solidify your point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine!!!!!

[Ditch Digger]

Here's my graph over my last 3078 60s. I don't want to say I played perfect in my 100 BI downswing but there's no way I was less than a 5% ROI guy in those games.

[Nikoms]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my graph over my last 3078 60s. I don't want to say I played perfect in my 100 BI downswing but there's no way I was less than a 5% ROI guy in those games.



[/ QUOTE ]

How much did you have to pay to get them to turn the doom switch off?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]