Good, Bad or just plain Ugly?

[jstill]

well KJ we do have to discount some based on preflop even though he could definitely cap that here in a steal spot as a somewhat unknown despite "seeming taggish".

the only question here really (as u know) is which line makes us the most money. In order for bet 3betting to be better than ck raise call or ck raise cap (the difference in EV between those two are very minimal) hed either have to raise a worse hand quite a bit of the time (greater than 50% of the time u lead the river at least) or ck behind KJ a ton (like half the time he has it) or some combination there of that would break the threshold for frequencies where bet 3bet would be better than check raising (doesnt seem realistic to me).

The fact is KJ checks behind here so little, altho I do acknowledge that should be a scare card since ur hand looks somewhat like two pair or a set (it really doesnt tho even if it did MORESO id still go for the check raise) but everyone bet calls here with KJ even after this action. In like half a million plus hands of poker, I think ive seen someone ck behind the nut straight on the turn when the board paired or brought a flush out HU like twice EVER. Its just not enough of a concern where that should be the factor dictating ur decision on which river line to chose. What does matter is the frequencies which he ll raise our lead with each holding, how often he caps our 3bet with each and how often he 3bets our check raise with each. With rough estimates of these (along with how often he checks behind KJ) we could determine the EV of cr/call/cap vs bet 3bet. However we do have to discount KJ due to preflop by a bit more than its actual number of combos before doing this.

This process is tiresome and a lot of it is guesswork, or truly undoable vs a roughly unknown. However u could compare the value of each line vs very spewy opponents, very tight opponents and somewhere imbetween.

bet 3betting because u fear KJ checking behind is really just silly as it doesnt focus on what is really important here and truth be told ur hand looks much more like KK or AA than QT or T9 to the villain ( or even AQ for that matter since u 3bet preflop) and ur hand doesnt look like QQ or TT at all since those probably bet 3bet the turn almost always not putting button on KJ since he capped preflop (duno if villain here is 2nd level thinking like this but doing some 3rd level thinking analysis here is valuable none the less for those opponents that do). Hands like AA or KK are still possible for villain as well (altho overplayed) and he ll bet those most of the time since u didnt 3bet the turn and ck to him here, check-raising gets 2 bbs from all his worse hands almost 100% of the time as he ll rarely rarely check behind or bet fold them now. Thats a ton of EV thats tough to make up for when u lead.

As an afterthought to this hand: remember in general, its not like check-raising has to work anywhere near 100% of the time to be better than donking very often.

[SuperUberBob]

Probably fold preflop unless villain makes a lot of plays from button.

Anyways, flop and turn as played. Though I might bet/call the river rather than 3-betting.

[Veron]

fold PF.
c/r cap the flop. bet/call the turn, and c/r cap the river