100 PLO middle set + bare ace, unraised pot OOP

[mxyzptlk]

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO ($113)
Button ($361.20)
Hero ($100.30)
BB ($443.30)
UTG ($35.60)
UTG+1 ($38.95)
MP1 ($72.15)
MP2 ($72.50)
MP3 ($103.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3</font>, MP1 calls $3, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $3, CO calls $3, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

Table is pretty passive. My line with top set here would usually be wait until the turn to CR since I really can't raise enough on the flop. The problem is with this line with middle set is that I might run into KK doing the betting on the turn. This may just be monsters under the bed, but I think it's wrong to go broke against KK here in an unraised pot. With middle set, my feeling is that I should raise like 1/2-3/4 pot to try to get a passive KK to expose his hand. I suppose I might wake up a wrap str8 + flush draw or a doofy 88, but I don't think that's likely to happen at this table. Then I plan on potting any safe turn, including any club. I don't know what these guys are calling with, but I figure a variety of crappy str8 and flush draws, so I'm hoping their outs are interfering to make a smaller raise safe. Thoughts on this line?

[glass_onion]

I don't think raising the flop is a good idea given the passive nature of the table. First, any number of draws might not like to go all in on the flop, but would have easy odds if you bet and anything raises you (like KK, or a draw hand for whatever reason).

Secondly, you might just run off 88.

third, since the table is so passive, don't pot commit them. If a nice low club comes you can blush the turn and probably take it down on a passive table, again, IF YOU don't raise flop and pot commit them.

While getting it all in with the only set against two draws is indeed profitable, you might be up against KK as you said and that possiblity negates it. The most profitable situation in PLO though, is set over set, so hope a blank falls or a low club hits on the turn, and reevaluate.

[Dazza1984]

Bet the flop everytime here. If someone has KKxx you'll find out soon enough.

[Ribbo]

Lead out the flop for half the pot. By doing this you will find yourself getting raised by 88 and KJ.
Hands like AQT will call, and you can bet them off later streets should a club hit because your flop bet will look like a drawing hand. Should a low blank hit on the turn, you can bet the pot. Check raising the flop feels horrible as it tells opponents the strength of your hand. Disguise it by betting out instead.

[glass_onion]

[ QUOTE ]
Lead out the flop for half the pot. By doing this you will find yourself getting raised by 88 and KJ[ QUOTE ]



Also KK, but we all know that.

Just to clarify, ribbo, if you had 88 here and dude 1/2 pots an open bet, you'd raise with 88 on this board? Or top two pair?

[mxyzptlk]

[ QUOTE ]
Lead out the flop for half the pot. By doing this you will find yourself getting raised by 88 and KJ.
Hands like AQT will call, and you can bet them off later streets should a club hit because your flop bet will look like a drawing hand. Should a low blank hit on the turn, you can bet the pot. Check raising the flop feels horrible as it tells opponents the strength of your hand. Disguise it by betting out instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but is there anything to making a small flop CR (not pot sized) which doesn't commit anyone so I can make a bigger bet on the turn when a favorable card falls?

Also, if I'm getting raised by KJ and 88 after leading, is it worth trying to distinguish these hands from KK on the flop? If I'm calling a raise on the flop after betting out, it seems like I'm going broke against KK. Should I just not worry about it since I'm +EV against the range of {KK,J8,K8,88,KJ,big draws}?

I see the benefits of leading though, thanks.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lead out the flop for half the pot. By doing this you will find yourself getting raised by 88 and KJ[ QUOTE ]



Also KK, but we all know that.

Just to clarify, ribbo, if you had 88 here and dude 1/2 pots an open bet, you'd raise with 88 on this board? Or top two pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd raise both, because the average joe bets small with 'drawing' hands like straight wraps and flush draws, whilst he bets big with 'made' hands like top and middle set.
If i'm confident my hand is leading, I'm happy raising many hands.
You can't just raise top set here or you will NEVER get action from anyone with middle or bottom set, or indeed 2 pair. You will just look like a nit, which is never profitable.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lead out the flop for half the pot. By doing this you will find yourself getting raised by 88 and KJ.
Hands like AQT will call, and you can bet them off later streets should a club hit because your flop bet will look like a drawing hand. Should a low blank hit on the turn, you can bet the pot. Check raising the flop feels horrible as it tells opponents the strength of your hand. Disguise it by betting out instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but is there anything to making a small flop CR (not pot sized) which doesn't commit anyone so I can make a bigger bet on the turn when a favorable card falls?

Also, if I'm getting raised by KJ and 88 after leading, is it worth trying to distinguish these hands from KK on the flop? If I'm calling a raise on the flop after betting out, it seems like I'm going broke against KK. Should I just not worry about it since I'm +EV against the range of {KK,J8,K8,88,KJ,big draws}?

I see the benefits of leading though, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

To clarify, when you're out of position, you want two things. Either keep the pot small until the river then make it big, or get it all in on the flop.
If you can't achieve the flop shove, which you will surely fail on, then you want to get to the river without making the pot too big. This way should someone outdraw you, it wont cost you too much.
As you are out of position, your mistakes will cost you more money and your opponents mistakes will cost him less money.
So bet an amount that will string along 2 pair or bottom set, and consider going for a big bet on the river (which will look like a bluff with a busted draw) or do the "ohnoes i've missed my draw" check and hope your opponent will value bet allowing you to check raise and make the pot big.

[mxyzptlk]

[ QUOTE ]

To clarify, when you're out of position, you want two things. Either keep the pot small until the river then make it big, or get it all in on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are these really the only options? Relying on only these two options seems to concede that you'll always not be able to put too much pressure on the draws which have position on you in an unraised pot. Can you address why setting up a big turn bet on a safe card (without investing too much in the flop, i.e., a small CR raise) to put pressure on the draws is not a reasonable option? Where does it go wrong, other than it checking around on the flop?

[glass_onion]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

To clarify, when you're out of position, you want two things. Either keep the pot small until the river then make it big, or get it all in on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are these really the only options? Relying on only these two options seems to concede that you'll always not be able to put too much pressure on the draws which have position on you in an unraised pot. Can you address why setting up a big turn bet on a safe card (without investing too much in the flop, i.e., a small CR raise) to put pressure on the draws is not a reasonable option? Where does it go wrong, other than it checking around on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, since you are likely a huge favorite if a blank falls turn. OR you could win with the blush if it hits turn.

I think the main problem with the all in or keep it small is that you are hoping for
A). brick 2-7 non spade turn and river, and even then someone could backdoor something, or still lose to KK.
b) it doesn't really address where the profit comes from in this hand, mainly, stacking bottom set while not losing your ass in the meantime. If 88 isn't in this pot, c/cing flop and c/calling turn hoping to have the board pair river and getting value is HUGELY -EV. HUGELY. IF you pair the turn, all draws shut down. Who calls the river bet aside from KK? And you can't call a pot sized turn profitably with only a set anyway.

And, lets not forget, KK is a part of the range of betting/calling hands, and you'll never know.

The fact that the table is passive makes the BLUSH an excellent option.

To quote the guy on "office space"
"dammit, I have PEOPLE SKILLS . . . just what the hell is wrong with you people."