.5/1 - ATs hits two pair on turn

[CMReedy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have folded preflop to the reraise. Is that playing too tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There are too many bets in the pot with the 2 blinds calling. Even without the blinds it's too huge of a mistake to fold for 1 more SB. Even if he has like a AK or AQ(or even KK-TT for that matter) and the blinds all fold, Your getting like 6.5 to 1 to call, so you only have to be good like 15% of the time.

If your playing the right hands in the right positions the only time you should fold for one bet more is if you complete the small blind with a trash hand and the BB raises (if he is decient and especially if there are more players in the pot. You'll have better pot odds, but there is a better chance he has a quality hand.)

Note: Another debate, put youself in his shoes-if you have QQ or JJ, do you call? Do your splitable gutshot plus bad set outs make up for the bad 9-1 pot odds? Methinks no because of the SB and BB behind, but please voice opinions.

[Maxinho]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a turn c/r here

[/ QUOTE ]

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. I think most 15/8s don't 3-bet QJ preflop, so let's ignore that.


[/ QUOTE ]

I want to know how many hands the stat represents. I've been 3-bet from ~15/8's with a wide range of hand, when I've got <100 hands worth of data - hands like 77-99, A8s-A9s.

I'm going to go out on a limb here. My first reaction to this turn was to c/c. I'm thinking that the blinds have a large range here - and only a very small % of the time to either have Q9 or 96. If they hold 97, they won't fold for 2-cold when MP raises your donk. And I don't mind them padding the pot with TPMK or any other crap holding.

Weighted against these arguments is the argument that we might be giving a free-card - which is the cardinal sin in a part this large. But I really don't see MP checking this through very often.

Dr. Modern,
If we take the b/f line on the turn and are just called by MP, say the other two drop, what do we do on a blank river?

b/c or c/c or b/f? In this case, we'd be getting 13-1.

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm going to go out on a limb here. My first reaction to this turn was to c/c. I'm thinking that the blinds have a large range here - and only a very small % of the time does either have Q9 or 96. If they hold 97, they won't fold for 2-cold when MP raises your donk. And I don't mind them padding the pot with TPMK or any other crap holding.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you don't care about their holdings anymore if MP raises your donk, because you're likely drawing too slim against his range to call his bet. Unless the 15/8 stat is unrepresentative as you suggested above.

The problem with check-calling is that the hands you want MP to call with (e.g. QQ, JJ) are being offered a free card with a live draw on a scary board. And when he bets you can't be too confident that you aren't drawing very slim, and hence aren't really getting the odds to call (viz. he's likely to have AK, AA, KK, TT). This could be offset by the other guys calling the bet, but this may make it such that there are more river cards you need to dodge.

I think a bet-fold line gets you the best information about MP's range, but, as I've stressed all along, if there's a higher probability he might be semi-bluff raising the turn, you'll need to call the raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Dr. Modern,
If we take the b/f line on the turn and are just called by MP, say the other two drop, what do we do on a blank river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably bet-call a blank river. Bet-fold is defensible if you have a really solid read.