.5/1 - ATs hits two pair on turn

[DrModern]

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I don't like bet-folding this turn. If MP2 pops your donk you're getting 11:1 on your four-outer to the boat and can't fold. That said, I think you have the best chance of getting value, get the most information, and have the best chance of protection (i.e. MP2 raises folding out possible gutshots) or, as the case may be, getting a nicely padded pot, by donking the turn. I'd bet-call it.


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Do you have 4 outs when you're 3-bet? You have 4 outs against QJ (16 combos) and KK (3 combos), but only 2 against AK (6 combos) and dead against AA (1 combo).

Since QJ is obviously the biggest chunk of all these, it boils down to estimating whether he would have 3-bet with that preflop. If not, you really don't have odds to draw.

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This is a good point. I think most 15/8s don't 3-bet QJ preflop, so let's ignore that.

That leaves AK (6 combos), KK (3 combos), and AA (1 combo), TT (1 combo) and I think we need to add in some semi-bluff-raise percentage here, too (e.g. AQ). I'll assume it's uncommon and count it as only 1 combo worth of his range.

So, 12 combos total
2 outs vs. 6 combos (AK)
4 outs vs. 4 (KK, TT)
0 outs vs. 1 (AA)
ahead vs. 1 (semi-bluff)

Let's assume the semi-bluff and AA probabilities cancel, which I'm sure they don't, but it makes the calculation simpler.

Your outs are: (2 * 6) + (4 * 4) / 10 = 2.8

Getting only 11:1 that's not enough for a call. It's an interesting result. So, yeah, I guess bet-fold is good here.

Edited to add: If you had a specific read on villain saying that he's happy to semi-bluff raise the turn sometimes, then you'd have to adjust the number of combos for that possibility upward, which would way your outs more heavily in favor of calling.

[DrModern]

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I doubt a 15/8 would 3-bet TT.

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Hmmm seems reasonable to think he might have TT here.

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QQ maybe, JJ maybe.

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Don't see why these are "maybe."

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So villain might have:
AA (1 hand)
KK (3)
AK (6)
QQ (6)
JJ (6) -- but let's discount this somewhat -- maybe use 3?

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I don't agree with the bolded part.

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So you are behind 10 hands and ahead of 9. Sounds like WA/WB to me. c/c turn, b/f river (UI).

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It's true that the situation vs. villain is WA/WB, but there are some complicating factors. He's more likely than usual to call you with a worse hand looking to hit a gutshot. It also is easy to get away from a second-best hand if he pops you on the turn. Also, there are the blinds left still, by betting, you prevent them (and villain) from realizing some equity on gutshots and the like for free. If you're villain here with JJ, you might very well check if checked to.

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Of all our outs, that was the one we wanted least.

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Yeah, it isn't easy to navigate this sitch.

[threads13]

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AK, AA, KK, TT were possible pre-flop aggressor holdings.

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I doubt a 15/8 would 3-bet TT. QQ maybe, JJ maybe. So villain might have:
AA (1 hand)
KK (3)
AK (6)
QQ (6)
JJ (6) -- but let's discount this somewhat -- maybe use 3?

So you are behind 10 hands and ahead of 9. Sounds like WA/WB to me. c/c turn, b/f river (UI).

Of all our outs, that was the one we wanted least.

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Remember, the WA/WB situation is often used for HU situations. This is a multiway pot. You aren't as likely to be WA with all the other players in.

You definitely want to bet this turn as you can't risk giving up a free card in this spot.

[nach0king]

Grunch: You missed no value. Do not allow a free card here. Probably wouldn't fold unless it was 2 or 3 back to me.

[DrModern]

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Remember, the WA/WB situation is often used for HU situations. This is a multiway pot. You aren't as likely to be WA with all the other players in.

You definitely want to bet this turn as you can't risk giving up a free card in this spot.

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I agree with all these statements, although it's important to note that the blinds will often not have a ton of equity in the hand. They could easily have only gutshots or some such here. But this is basically right.

What it do.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

"Limit: $0.50/$1"
"b/f"

never use these 2 things together

[pena]

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"Limit: $0.50/$1"
"b/f"

never use these 2 things together

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Why?

[DrModern]

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"Limit: $0.50/$1"
"b/f"

never use these 2 things together

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Wow, really? I bet/fold at fiddy/dollah all the time and am killing it for like 4bb/100.

[cprice2]

I think I would have folded preflop to the reraise. Is that playing too tight?

[CMReedy]

Grunch

Hm, very intresting. QJ also owns you from one of the blnds if the SB is terrible or maybe if the BB got it suited or is bad. I think a B/F stragety is too weak here though. Granted MP2 is pretty tight (sidenote: my stats are very similar, even the AG due to my reluctance for aggression on the river...gotta fix that and V. bet!).

Your preflop: I like the raise from UTG+2, UTG 0/1 I might fold or limp, but it depends on the table though.

Flop: Pretty standard. Your getting like 15-1, enough for even 3 outs to call. A marginal middle pair hand and a backdoor flush draw has at least that. I'm temped to even raise but this seems bad for some reason.

Turn: The pot is 8bb, I like B/C here as long as it's not the SB or BB who wakes up. That might be AT, KT, A8 if they do, but that seems more like QJ,/ set/ better 2 pair if they do. Your prolly beat even the MP2 raises, but I think the pot will be so big at that point you'll have to make a crying calldown.

Again these type of hands seem to be my downfall, but I'm eager to read the other responses to see how terrible my analysis was [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]