Conjecture and Question

[ymu]

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Surely your $40K theoretical equity at the start already includes the X% of the time you will double up?

Obviously your equity in this tournament goes up but not by much depending on what % of the time your $40k theoretical includes an early double up.

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Yes, but your equity calculation after doubling up excludes all the possible scenarios considered for the pre-tourney calculation where you did not double up and/or had donked out early, so it goes up a lot*. And your chip stack is not the only variable that has changed in the calculation compared to pre-tourney - depending on what happens to relative skill level and how play changes when there is a big stack hanging around.


* Mason's estimate was an upper limit of 70% probability that a top pro will double up at least once in any given tourney. So after doubling up, we get to eliminate 30% of the pre-tourney scenarios, all of which had $0 as the outcome. That is a pretty big difference!