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#1
04-14-2007, 03:16 PM
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ensign_lee tries to dig himself out of his hole: 04/14/07
YTD: 29-31
Units Won: -16.39 You can see a more detailed account of my record at: http://www.sagestats.com/view.php?uid=322424978 --- Wowzers. Yesterday sucked, but it's my own damn fault for betting WAAAAAAY over my head. But I will NOT chase. I'm gonna have to grind my way back out of this hole. ... *sigh*. Allrighty, here's what we have on deck for today: --- St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (178.36) 1 unit Texas Rangers (-113.27) 2 units at Matchbook Boston Red Sox -1.5 (108.78) 3 units Dodgers M/L (108.78) 2 units --- I also have offers pending on matchbook. As they get filled, I will post them as plays. I've borrowed some of these picks from handicappers just like you! Thanks for your help, guys! 
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#2
04-14-2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: ensign_lee tries to dig himself out of his hole: 04/14/07
St. Louis (-124.49)
2 units at Matchbook
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#3
04-14-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: ensign_lee tries to dig himself out of his hole: 04/14/07
i was just wondering why you tend to favor the run line so much? are the lines really that off from what you predict?
it's not like the teams you are picking for RL bets are heavy favorites either and both of them are home today so chance they only bat 8 innings so i was wondering whats the reasoning behind it
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#4
04-14-2007, 06:20 PM
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Re: ensign_lee tries to dig himself out of his hole: 04/14/07
Atlanta (-120.4)
2 units at Matchbook Atlanta -1.5 (+175) 1 unit at Matchbook Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+128) 1 unit at BetJam
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#5
04-14-2007, 06:24 PM
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Re: ensign_lee tries to dig himself out of his hole: 04/14/07
rsigley:
I know that in essence, I have to have them cover hte runline in 8 innings while their opponent has 9. However, if you'll look, this is priced into the lines. That's why sometimes there will be a 120 cent difference between the M/L and the runline. I think that I'm more than fairly compensated for it. Plus, just about 30% of games are decided by 1 run supposedly. Let's say 2/3's of those go to the favorites (kind of a rocky assumption, but let's go with it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] . That means that I'll get stabbed by that half point 1/5 of the time. THe other times, my team either won by 2 or more runs (more profit for me) or my team lost (lose less units if I was betting on a big favorite). So that about sums up why I do bet on runlines. That, plus they don't adjust cent for cent with moneylines and sometimes I think the line has been underadjusted for line moves in the moneyline market.
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