PSA/Rant: Asking people what they think of your parlays (somewhat LC)

[stickneymarc]

True.

Maybe I didn't take my medication today.

I'm not drunk yet. That could be it.

[Lori]

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I doubt anybody here has enough long term results to have a sampling that any statistician would consider large enough to provide any validity to

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El-Oh-El

[MCS]

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Math matters when you have a large enough sample.

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Math matters for every sample if you understand math.

[Little_Luck]

Berating those for talking about parlays is no better than berating fish for taking ridiculous shots at the table. It is EV- for us to make them feel like they made the wrong move. For those of us that are winning players, you should be happy they make such nice donations towards our long-term profits.

Some view gambling as entertainment and should not discourage them in any way, if they care about their long-term EV in sports betting.

Let them have their entertainment, they paid for it.

[paperchamp]

This is a strategy forum where everyone comes to get better at sports betting. If you want to brag about your donk parlay, go tell your buddies. The poker analogy isn't exactly true because in sports betting we don't profit from others bad plays.

[stickneymarc]

paperchamp...why do you keep up this is a strategy forum?

This is a general gambling forum with the sub-heading: "Discussions related to wagering on sporting events."

I would also suggest that everyone who thinks parlays are bad post 3 picks a day for the next month and document your results, for say May, and if you are a winning player you can talk about how the expectations for parlays is negative once you can show that your expectation for your own betting is positive.

[Thremp]

Stickney,

Cause I decreed it was strategy.


Why must someone else be a winnar to show that you won't win either? It doesn't matter if I'm Green Plastic or noatima, you're doing the poker equivalent of openpushing 72o.

[MicroBob]

Wait....
Thremp is Green Plastic?
Cool.

[stickneymarc]

I hate to break it to you, but when you push with 72o you get paid off a lot more often and bigger when you have a real hand. Many of the successful poker players over the last few years are pushing with hands that 10 years ago would have been considered poor plays. They get called down because they could have any two cards. It's not relevant here.

When you are consistantly winning at making parlays then one must be doing something right. I documented my successes for an entire month. I would do so permanently, but to put in a public forum exactly what I am making a month would provide a negative expectation.

[stickneymarc]

See I gamble for fun. I do well enough in my career that gambling gives me reason to follow teams that I wouldn't otherwise follow. I also have a lot of free time at work. I also feel that on any given day I can find 4 to 6 moneylines that I feel are winners. To play these picks str8 up doesn't give me enough value. I would rather parlay a few different combinations that I think are the most logical. Baring huge upsets. I can hit at least one of say 4 parlays and ofset any losses from the other 3. If I hit big or lose big in the end it doesn't matter because I have fun either way. Fortunately my track record has been better than my statistical expectation. This makes parlay for me even more fun. Winning will do that. My only complaint is to put down parlays solely because the math over a large sampling points to losing. Not everyone loses everytime.