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#21
04-13-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
Our lifetime is not a good enough sample for anything to come close to converging as far as winrate at live tournaments go.. With the flat pay structures and the nature of relatively short-stack play, the "long-run" has to be 1000+ tournaments.
Here's an example: Two summers ago I spent 4 months playing the nightly tournaments on UB, Stars, Party, Dise, and FTP. Over that time period I had a stretch of 29 tournaments on Stars without a cash. No typo, not "final table", but without a single cash. During the same time-period, I cashed in 19 of 30 UB tournaments, including 9 final tables, 3 wins, 2 of them being back-to-back nights. And if anything, I'd say the Stars tourneys ($150's) were probably softer than the UB $100's. The playing fields were also relatively the same. Then I broke the streak on Stars with a win in a $10r, 1200+ person field. Then I played maybe 2 or 3 more Stars tournaments before finishing 3rd in this year's WCOOP ME. Just goes to show how extremely wild the swings of tournament poker can be. Again, I'm not taking anything away from JC Tran. He's obviously an incredible tournament player, but I'm just not easily convinced that he's "that much" better than the rest of the "good" tournament players. 
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#23
04-13-2007, 09:17 PM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
[ QUOTE ]
I have considered JC Tran one of the top tournament players since WCOOP. That being said the cold logic guys are right about him and Madsen and everyone else. I have an idea for a prop bet. You (and the rest of the blogger types) can take a bunch of tournament phenoms in the WSOP ME and you choose my horses for me. I'm comfortable taking anyone with a large winning sample at the 25-50 nl and higher games on FTP. [/ QUOTE ] Ok you're on....I choose JC Tran, The Grinder, Nam Le, and Paul Wasicka in the main event and I give you JMan, Sbrubgy, Snake8484, and Rekrul. Edit: $500?
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#25
04-13-2007, 10:41 PM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have considered JC Tran one of the top tournament players since WCOOP. That being said the cold logic guys are right about him and Madsen and everyone else. I have an idea for a prop bet. You (and the rest of the blogger types) can take a bunch of tournament phenoms in the WSOP ME and you choose my horses for me. I'm comfortable taking anyone with a large winning sample at the 25-50 nl and higher games on FTP. [/ QUOTE ] Ok you're on....I choose JC Tran, The Grinder, Nam Le, and Paul Wasicka in the main event and I give you JMan, Sbrubgy, Snake8484, and Rekrul. Edit: $500? [/ QUOTE ] I'd take Shaniac's picks in a second over the others. I think the 2 groups are night and day different when it comes to tourney skill.
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#26
04-14-2007, 02:34 AM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
[ QUOTE ]
I'll take the bet if those guys are all winners (seems pretty likely) and only if all of our guys actually play. [/ QUOTE ] We'll work out a system for alternates for you, since for all I know Rekrul won't come over from Seoul to play, so I presume the bet is on.
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#27
04-14-2007, 02:50 AM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
shaniac, what do you think jctrans roi is in 10k events? everyone seems to think that greater than 100% is really hard to accomplish but your posts seem to imply you think jc's is much higher than this. thoughts?
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#28
04-14-2007, 03:05 AM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
[ QUOTE ]
shaniac, what do you think jctrans roi is in 10k events? everyone seems to think that greater than 100% is really hard to accomplish but your posts seem to imply you think jc's is much higher than this. thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] Um, look at the numbers. His gross years since and including 2004 are: 769K, 811K, 1.1M and 2.2M so far this year. What are his buyins? 300-350K/yr at the very most? He also beats single tables and stuff... I agree the 1000%+ ROI freeroll he's enjoying for 2007 amounts to a statistical deviation, but, yeah, his ROI seems to be greater than 100%.
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#29
04-14-2007, 04:20 AM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
[ QUOTE ]
I'll take the bet if those guys are all winners (seems pretty likely) and only if all of our guys actually play. [/ QUOTE ] I'll take $500 on that also if you want it.
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#30
04-14-2007, 05:27 AM
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Re: What makes JC Tran so much better than anyone else right now?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have considered JC Tran one of the top tournament players since WCOOP. That being said the cold logic guys are right about him and Madsen and everyone else. I have an idea for a prop bet. You (and the rest of the blogger types) can take a bunch of tournament phenoms in the WSOP ME and you choose my horses for me. I'm comfortable taking anyone with a large winning sample at the 25-50 nl and higher games on FTP. [/ QUOTE ] Ok you're on....I choose JC Tran, The Grinder, Nam Le, and Paul Wasicka in the main event and I give you JMan, Sbrubgy, Snake8484, and Rekrul. Edit: $500? [/ QUOTE ] Shane, Thats almost like "cheating"? LOL
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