PSA/Rant: Asking people what they think of your parlays (somewhat LC)

[stickneymarc]

That was my plan last month. Only I couldn't lose and now parlays rule.

[ImNew]

stickneymarc, I understand that you made a lot of money from betting parlays, I wholeheartly agree that you already proved us wrong last month based on your success (you were probably one of the biggest winners here last month), and we are even more wrong in giving negative comments about parlays in this thread.

You can simply ignore idiots like us in the future because there is nothing that we understand anyway.

[stickneymarc]

People are entitled to be dumb or smart. I think though to follow what people post here is not positive in the long or short run. I prefer to go with what I see and read and draw my own conclusion.

To simply put down parlays because of math is wrong. To use math to back up negative expectation of parlays is wrong, I think this because the sample size of a gambler is most likely well short of the hundreds of thousands of bets needed to have an accurate sampling. Over the lifetimes of many gamblers, parlay betting isn't smart for anybody with less than an approx 60% win rate.

Now when people post random parlay bragings in order to draw attention or to come up with systems that are nothing new, they leave themselves open to get flamed.

I just have a problem with people who discount parlays as a waste of money simply based on expectation. I think most who do not suffer from mental illness expect that the $20 parlay for $2000 is most likely not going to work out well. With some smart hedge betting you can use those wins to offset any lottery losses until you hit one. I showed a blueprint last month on how it can be done. It's time consuming to post results everyday so I didn't do it this month. Also, I really don't like to have in a public forum my winnings posted for too long. I can say this month I have not had the amazing successes of last month, but it really hasn't been very bad either and the month is still young. Last month was fun to put my money where my mouth was sort of thing. Too often on this site people throw out expert comments and have no data to back up if they really have a expert clue. I just happened to have a great month last month and have no delusions of repeating that every month. I caught a huge break of the NCAA going without huge upsets for 2 rounds and the NHL holding form for the better part of 2 weeks. I've been killing MLB this month taking unders in games with at least 1 solid pitcher.

[stickneymarc]

Here's 2 I did for today as examples of what I've tried to do this month. I have a large str8 wager on Santana tonight to offset anything lost on these. Hopefully D-rays don't wake up and figure out how to rock Johan.

04/12/2007 23:24:11 3 Play Parlay: Wagered $100.00 to win $630.02 Unsettled
BA 23 4/13 DETROIT: BONDERMAN AT TORONTO: R HALLADAY UNDER +8.0 (+100)
BN 3 4/13 HOUSTON: R OSWALT AT PHILADELPHIA: B MYERS UNDER +8.0 (-105)
BN 11 4/13 MILWAUKEE: B SHEETS AT ST. LOUIS: AN REYES UNDER +8.0 (-115)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

04/12/2007 23:21:59 6 Play Parlay: Wagered $300.00 to win $5889.75 Unsettled
BA 19 4/13 KANSAS CITY: DUCKWORTH AT BALTIMORE: E BEDARD BALTIMORE: E BEDARD (-167)
BA 23 4/13 DETROIT: BONDERMAN AT TORONTO: R HALLADAY TORONTO: R HALLADAY (-143)
BA 25 4/13 TAMPA BAY: S KAZMIR AT MINNESOTA: JO SANTANA MINNESOTA: JO SANTANA (-210)
BN 3 4/13 HOUSTON: R OSWALT AT PHILADELPHIA: B MYERS HOUSTON: R OSWALT (+100)
BN 5 4/13 SAN FRANCISCO: R ORTIZ AT PITTSBURGH: Z DUKE PITTSBURGH: Z DUKE (-153)
BN 7 4/13 WASHINGTON: PATTERSON AT NEW YORK N: M PELFREY NEW YORK N: M PELFREY (-180)

[rush66]

This is so much more manly.

Risked $2.96 to win $2,102.17

10 Team Parlay Bet Details (reference #72131734)
San Jose SaberCats -10
Football - Arena Lines ARENA FOOTBALL - WEEK 7 - Pointspread
Fri@8:00p

Detroit Pistons +6
Basketball - NBA Lines - Pointspread
Fri@7:05p

New Orleans Hornets -1 (-115)
Basketball - NBA Lines - Pointspread
Fri@8:05p

San Jose Sharks +130
Hockey - NHL NHL PLAYOFFS - Moneyline
Fri@8:05p San Jose leads the series 1-0

San Jose Sharks vs. Nashville Predators Under 5½ (-125)
Hockey - NHL NHL PLAYOFFS - Total
Fri@8:05p San Jose leads the series 1-0

Vancouver Canucks -120
Hockey - NHL NHL PLAYOFFS - Moneyline
Fri@9:05p Vancouver leads the series 1-0

Philadelphia Phillies -102
Baseball - MLB NATIONAL LEAGUE - Moneyline
Fri@7:05p

Detroit Tigers +136
Baseball - MLB AMERICAN LEAGUE - Moneyline
Fri@7:05p

New York Mets -200
Baseball - MLB NATIONAL LEAGUE - Moneyline
Fri@7:10p

Oakland Athletics -104
Baseball - MLB AMERICAN LEAGUE - Moneyline
Fri@10:05p

[stickneymarc]

Nice. Also, excellent use of an arena football game.

[Thremp]

sticky,

Don't discount parlays because of math? Umm... what other methods do you use?

Post Oak seemed to discount the premier forecasting system, two people who making a living at full or in part betting baseball, and stats. Atleast you just scoff at good ol math instead of everything.

[stickneymarc]

Well as I said. Math matters when you have a large enough sample. Last month I hit about 5 parlays in 1 night. Does that mean I'll win every night like that? I've also lost for several days str8. Does that mean I should give up?

As of today. Last month and this month I've made 606 parlays. Winning 65 for a 10.7% win rate. I placed in combination str8 and parlay bets 3871 bets, winning 2210 for a 57% win rate. Take my stats and multiply by 10,000 and I might have a sampling.

I scoff at math to determine short term results. I doubt anybody here has enough long term results to have a sampling that any statistician would consider large enough to provide any validity to.

[TheRover]

[ QUOTE ]
I scoff at short term results.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Thremp]

Stickey,

you suck at bettz.