NL50, laydown the set of Queens?

[kolotoure]

His range is heavily weighted towards a K

[mAkCQRE]

this seems to be a rather difficult desicion and produces quite a few different opinions.

now at least i know i wasnt totally off when i made the call and immediatly hated it.

he had AK btw and the river blanked

[21SuicideKing21]

[quote
villain is 12.8 / 6.9 / 3.0 / 500


[/ QUOTE ]

Really all you need to see, he could have a set of jacks, but with those stats, I don't think he has anything else besides a king.

[AKQJ]

[ QUOTE ]
villain is 12.8 / 6.9 / 3.0 / 500

[/ QUOTE ]

He got AA AK KK. Not an easy laydown, but I fold this 100%. If you have called, I don't know where PAhud could be useful for you then [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[jimpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Id rather not fold here. Im calling here, there is a lot you beat here, a little you are behind, and if you are behind you have outs to fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let us do some handreading together:
Mr VPIP12.8 calls 3bets preflop with
22-AA, AK, agree?
What hands does he call a potsized bet on the flop with?
JJ,TT,AK,AA,KK.
On the turn, what hands will he shove with?
JJ,TT,AK,AA,KK.

We will be behind a lot IMO, and he is virtually never bluffing unless he is tilting badly or has some history with hero. I really have trouble coming up with a LOT of hands we beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't dispute your hand reading but lets do some EV analysis.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.032 secs 1,051,875 games/sec

Board: Qh Jh Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.776% 56.79% 00.98% 19116 331.50 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 42.224% 41.24% 00.98% 13881 331.50 { KK+, JJ-TT, AKs, AKo }

You are getting better then 2-1 on your money and are only 3-2 against the range you put villain on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why did you calculate the equity on the flop, and not the turn? What would the results be if you put the turn card in?

Also, how can we weight his hand range based on his line? Out of { KK+, JJ-TT, AKs, AKo }, which hands he plays the turn the way he played more often than others? I have hard time figuring out if he is more likely to push when he has JJ than he is to push when he has AK, for example....

[tiger_hall]

raise to $7 pre flop... bet pot on flop..
on the turn its just a sick card... you would have to have reads on how he plays but i would have thought that he didnt have a king and is protecting his hand... he knows you are unlikely to have a king..its all about how you read his play on whether you call or not

[kabouter]

AK seems quite normal to me, he would call the 3bet. And if he had a set, and put you on kk/AA. He would probably still raise the flop.
With AK, he doesn't have a lot to worry about though, for me, against a player with such nitty stats, it's an easy fold.

1000 posts btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[evazan]

[ QUOTE ]


Why did you calculate the equity on the flop, and not the turn? What would the results be if you put the turn card in?

Also, how can we weight his hand range based on his line? Out of { KK+, JJ-TT, AKs, AKo }, which hands he plays the turn the way he played more often than others? I have hard time figuring out if he is more likely to push when he has JJ than he is to push when he has AK, for example....

[/ QUOTE ]

Good catch. I don't know why I calculated equity on the flop.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,188 games 0.047 secs 25,276 games/sec

Board: Qh Jh Tc Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.542% 34.01% 03.54% 404 42.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 62.458% 58.92% 03.54% 700 42.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, AKs, AKo }

As you can see this makes it a much more thin call and may make me lean more towards a fold. If you even weight the chance of him having a king to be slightly more then a different hand this is a -ev play.

As far as I know you can't weight hands in pokerstove but I'm not expert.