calling all-in with AK

[Black Aces 518]

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You really ought to read the Harrington books. Regardless of how much you implement, most tournament players today have read them, so you need to know what they are using.

You are VASTLY overestimating how good your chip position is. You will lose 1/2 your stack in thirty hands. You might not get a hand better than, say, QTo in the next 30 hands. Sure you might get AA and doofus gets A7 on the very next hand. Or you might get JJ, and he walks into AQ, and you are flipping for his stack, rather than having him dominated. The fact is, you don't know what will happen, but something has to happen quick.

OP had a read that the guy raises big with marginal hands and regular with strong hands. You've never played against a guy like that? I have all the time. And if you take OP's word at face value, his read proved correct.

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I have all three volumes and have read them multiple times. They have improved my tourney and SnG play immensely and are among my favourite poker books.

I have found however, that I am a little more loose-aggressive earlier in tourneys than he advocates and I am a little tighter later in tournaments. As well, in OP's final table situations, I find myself being more of an aggressor rather than a caller.

I do realize that people who have low Ms and have read Harrington are making open shoves and other plays realizing they have little time left. However, for UTG to open shove here with a small or mid A is really an aggressive play and really unneccesary in my opinion.

In the end, I would call here with AK in lots of situations but my first inclination was to not call in this exact one. I would expect most people to call me conservative rather than wrong. As a matter of fact, I appreciate all the players who would put all their chips in here. That's just not my current style in these situations. For example, if UTG had 40K chips, I would reraise all-in here.

I understand all the arguements for calling here with AK and the fact that this is probably the last time I will see AK in this tourney. I don't know, maybe I don't find Ak as nice a hand as a lot of people do.

Anyways, thanks for your posts. At least you have been civil and have not needed to refer to male body parts.

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Oh, OK. I misunderstood when you said "I didn't know what the M was" as "I don't know what M means" instead of "I didn't calculate the M" I def don't think UTG has read HoH, and didn't mean that we should call b/c of that. I was just saying you should read the books, but you obv have.

As my final point, a 50/50 mix of 1sts and 6ths is far more profitable than 100% string of 3rds. Take care.

[Nikoms]

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I have found however, that I am a little more loose-aggressive earlier in tourneys than he advocates and I am a little tighter later in tournaments. As well, in OP's final table situations, I find myself being more of an aggressor rather than a caller.

I do realize that people who have low Ms and have read Harrington are making open shoves and other plays realizing they have little time left. However, for UTG to open shove here with a small or mid A is really an aggressive play and really unneccesary in my opinion.

In the end, I would call here with AK in lots of situations but my first inclination was to not call in this exact one. I would expect most people to call me conservative rather than wrong. As a matter of fact, I appreciate all the players who would put all their chips in here. That's just not my current style in these situations. For example, if UTG had 40K chips, I would reraise all-in here.



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Pants - I actually prolly would have played it like you suggest (i.e. fold). Being a strong second stack here, I tend to be more conservative simply because it's the big stack who's shoving - and he aint shoving to steal my blind.

However, I bolded the part above because I think many people make the mistake in thinking that you did right there. They discount a read and put themselves in UTG's shoes. The question should NOT be "What would I shove with UTG and big stacked?" but "What would he shove with UTG and big stacked?"

Ironically, he made the classic mistake that I try not to: never make a bet that will only get called by hands that beat you. If the OP did call with AK vs. A7 and lost, he made the right read, the right call and should feel good about the decision (not about that beat - that's why they call 'em bad ones).

You've read books. "Would you have played the hand the same way with the cards face up?"

nh

[dedor]

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by the way the results were : I called, UTG showed A7 off, I lost.

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All this for a BBV thread? No wonder it degenerated into name-calling and dick-swinging.

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This is far from BBV thread.
it's a very interesting situation that comes up not that rarely, and can be studied from.
The results are irrelevant. I posted them only because of the big debate it crated (and name-calling) and I wanted to show that the read on the player was something we had to consider.

[sethypooh21]

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Call me a wussbag, but unless the blinds are really low relative to the shorty stacks, I probably fold here

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Wussbag.

This is an easy call (unless you're allergic to winning)

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, yeah I know. A call is obviously +cEV, but given the table conditions, my intuition was that it was -$EV. If someone can ICM this right quick (assume CL's range is something like 22/A6o/A5s/KQo/KTs/QJs/JTs/98s probably weighted towards pairs and aces), we can conclusively show that I'm a monkey.

[PantsOnFire]

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The question should NOT be "What would I shove with UTG and big stacked?" but "What would he shove with UTG and big stacked?"

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Actually, this is probably a leak in my game that I need to look into.

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You've read books. "Would you have played the hand the same way with the cards face up?"

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I'm not quite sure what you mean here. However, fi UTG's cards were face up, I would fold to all PP and call all AQ or less.

I realize that some players would call all hands except AA, KK. As I have stated, that is not my style. I may need work on my style but I'm generally a low variance, conservative type unless I'm the first to act then I can be quite aggressive. Fold equity is my friend and I love AK for it's fold equity properties.

[DonkeyChip]

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The results are irrelevant.

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Yea...they should be irrelevant...but if you lose this hand, say, 6 times in a row that has to affect your decision the 7th time it comes up. It shouldn't...but we're all human and it does.

When I first read the op I thought; "You have the best hand, you have to call...you're going to lose...guaranteed...but you have to call."

I throw up a little in this spot...then I make the call...then lose to a 'worse' hand. At some point you're not sure what to do.

[Black Aces 518]

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The question should NOT be "What would I shove with UTG and big stacked?" but "What would he shove with UTG and big stacked?"

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Actually, this is probably a leak in my game that I need to look into.

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You've read books. "Would you have played the hand the same way with the cards face up?"

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I'm not quite sure what you mean here. However, fi UTG's cards were face up, I would fold to all PP and call all AQ or less.

I realize that some players would call all hands except AA, KK. As I have stated, that is not my style. I may need work on my style but I'm generally a low variance, conservative type unless I'm the first to act then I can be quite aggressive. Fold equity is my friend and I love AK for it's fold equity properties.

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I don't think most players would call here in this specific spot with the AK if UTG showed 88 first. You would be taking slightly the worst of it. I think the reason this is such an easy call is because of the read that this is likely a dominated hand OR pocket pair. If he's shoving A7, he's probably shoving KQ, KJ and those type hands too. It's too much equity to pass up.

[diebitter]

Let's put this a different way. Let's say it is a 50/50. Consider the stepped prize money. Do you think double your stack is worth exactly double in real prize-money dollars, more than this or less than this?

If more, you should call. Do you see why?

[seke2]

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Call me a wussbag, but unless the blinds are really low relative to the shorty stacks, I probably fold here

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Wussbag.

This is an easy call (unless you're allergic to winning)

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, yeah I know. A call is obviously +cEV, but given the table conditions, my intuition was that it was -$EV. If someone can ICM this right quick (assume CL's range is something like 22/A6o/A5s/KQo/KTs/QJs/JTs/98s probably weighted towards pairs and aces), we can conclusively show that I'm a monkey.

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Since I'm not going to overcomplicate this and if you really want to, you can, I'm going to assume the other people at the table fold every time no matter what they hold (this is obv inaccurate since the shorties may call with a few hands, especially if Hero folds, but that won't impact Hero's ICM value much anyway), but I'm pretty sure you don't care that much to answer your question).

Prizes (OP didn't provide what payout 6th got, so I'll pretend it's 5-handed and MP2 doesn't exist)

Total prizepool: 3700
1400 (.38)
900 (.24)
600 (.16)
450 (.12)
350 (.10)

Assuming blinds are 4k/8k/400 as per OP's later post

Stacks before hand:
UTG (t223633) .2852
UTG+1(30644) .1455
Hero (117642) .2296
SB(t39081) .1567
BB(t62273) .1830

Hero folds, new stacks w/ ICM value:
UTG (237233)
UTG+1 (30244)
Hero (117242) .2316
SB (34681)
BB (53873)

Value of Hero's stack before hand (and if Hero folded): .2316 * 3700 = $856.92

Value of folding: $856.92


Now, let's say Hero calls, SB and BB always fold, and Hero has 61% equity using the range sethypoo provided.

Hero wins, new stacks w/ ICM value:
UTG 105991
UTG+1 30244
Hero 247684 .2906
SB 34681
BB 53873

Value of Hero's stack after winning: .2970 * 3700 = $1098.9
Hero loses, Hero wins 350

.61 * $1098.9 + .39 * $350 = 670.329 + 136.5 = $806.829

Value of calling: $806.829

ICM says its a fold. I don't think adding in the possibility of SB and BB calling UTG with a moderate range and calling UTG and Hero with a tiny range is going to drastically swing the values enough to make it a call by ICM either.

HOWEVER, since our read allows us to discount the possibility that our opponent has a strong hand, let's say we remove AA-QQ and AK from his range. That gives us 63.5% equity.

.635 * 1098.9 + .365 * 350 = 697.8015 + 127.75 = $825.55

Still a fold, but getting closer.

We need about 67% equity for this to swing into a call by ICM.

The additional value of a larger stack is ignored by this model, as a good player might gain additional advantage from doubling up here that would allow him to go deeper than an "average" player, but again, that's going to be kinda minimal.

I'm a bit surprised by this, and maybe my math is wrong somewhere...but ICM says we should fold AK here, even when we put our opponent on a range that we have ~65% equity against with AK.

[sethypooh21]

Victory is mine!