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#1
04-10-2007, 08:18 PM
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Large Richardson LL Haley wager I just made.....
So I noticed on matchbook a couple of days ago that Richardson LL Haley was being offered, in a large quantity, at -218. I like him at the WA -290 here, so I jumped on it. To win $333. I then posted on 2+2, as there was almost certainly value there (even if you don't love Chris at -290). I told you guys to go pound it. Pretty sure my post was deleted in the change over to the new site layout. No one pounded it and I resisted the urge to gobble it all up (as I couldn't arb it, given the +210 price on Haley). Happy with my $333 (to win).
Then I checked back 20 minutes ago, and Richardson was available at -168!! Huge value right? There was just shy of 3K available (to win approx 1700ish). So I did what I had to do, took it all. Now I'm huge on Richardson LL Haley, and I guess I could even hedge at +210 on WSEX (assuming that stays up). Now paranoia is setting in. Anyone think I got taken? Think the offer was from someone who watched the reharsals? Anyone else ever see anything too good to be true on matchbook and get burned? Most on this thread seem very sophisticated in regard to the AI marketplace (I am not), so I thought I'd share and see what people thought, or what similar experiences others had on exchanges... 
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#2
04-10-2007, 08:24 PM
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Re: Large Richardson LL Haley wager I just made.....
be careful man... i would hedge some of this... i totally agree it seems like huge value but anything can happen. For all we know, richardson is in last place and haley is the middle of pack.
For instance. 2 weeks ago Gina seemed like she was middle of the pack. Haley was bottom 2 or 3. Than Gina got eliminated b4 haley. I got burned pretty bad on that one.
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#3
04-10-2007, 08:27 PM
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Re: Large Richardson LL Haley wager I just made.....
All I know is I arbed the two lines for a bunch so I win $100 on Richardson lasting longer, and I lose $0 if Haley somehow lasts longer.
I don't think Richardson is that huge of a favorite to last longer than her honestly. -Brendan
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#4
04-10-2007, 08:29 PM
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Re: Large Richardson LL Haley wager I just made.....
[ QUOTE ]
be careful man... i would hedge some of this... i totally agree it seems like huge value but anything can happen. For all we know, richardson is in last place and haley is the middle of pack. For instance. 2 weeks ago Gina seemed like she was middle of the pack. Haley was bottom 2 or 3. Than Gina got eliminated b4 haley. I got burned pretty bad on that one. [/ QUOTE ] Good point. Thanks! I'm thinking I definitely arb some of this, if given the chance before tomorrow's elimination show. I actually thought the show tonight was at 9 and I had an hour to think about it, but I was wrong and now I'm pretty sure the lines are frozen (matchbook took off the LLs). Hopefully back up somewhere tomorrow and Chris doesn't bomb....
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#5
04-10-2007, 08:31 PM
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Re: Large Richardson LL Haley wager I just made.....
[ QUOTE ]
All I know is I arbed the two lines for a bunch so I win $100 on Richardson lasting longer, and I lose $0 if Haley somehow lasts longer. I don't think Richardson is that huge of a favorite to last longer than her honestly. -Brendan [/ QUOTE ] Brendan, you get the precise -168 at matchbook I was talking about?
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