Rate This "Edge" - Page 9

seemorenuts · #81 04-06-2007, 02:04 PM

Think Jamie Gold. Tricks. Amnesia.

Also, you need not focus so much on only the player to your right.

MCS · #82 04-06-2007, 02:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. Have any of the previous posters on this thread scored two 800s on the older GRE analytical and quantitative sections and if so, can you do it with time to spare? if so, how much?

I would lay 20000:1 that there weren't any in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will take your 20000-1 bet that a poster in this thread besides you has achieved double 800s. No "time to spare" conditions since they can't be verified. Let me know how much you are willing to bet and then we will get to the business of determining the winner and transferring money.

seemorenuts · #83 04-06-2007, 04:38 PM

There are ways of determining time to spare.

I don't think you could be relied on to deliver the money when you lose. You haven't contributed an iota to this thread, btw.

Okay, you're on.

I'll bet my 20 Quadrillion dollars to your 1 billion.

Now show me the proof, and let the person demonstrate how much time they had left (honor system).

Please, contribute something to the thread, do you think scenario one has you at better than 80% to win?

MCS · #84 04-06-2007, 05:44 PM

LOL at "I don't think you could be relied on..." Based on what? Just the general nature of Internet anonymity and wagering? I have paid bets before to other 2+2 members, including one mod. Plus we could use some type of escrow or something. But it doesn't look like you're actually wanting to lay 20000-1, so whatever. Somehow I don't think I could rely on you to deliver me the size of your proposed wager either. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I got two 800's when I took the GRE in 2000, which is why I have been so confident that someone else in the thread has done it. I had essentially no time to spare on the analytical section and in fact had to make educated guesses on the last couple, as my time was short. I had tons of time left on the quantitative section. I don't have digital proof, but I guess if you're in my neighborhood and stop by, I can show you my score results sheet. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

My point was that you shouldn't rely on just beating people over the head with your intelligence/accomplishments, no matter how impressive they are. Also, you should be cautious about laying 20000-1 when there is a chance someone knows something you don't.

I agree that I haven't contributed to answering the original question. I don't really have much to say that hasn't already been said.

By the way, 20000-1 on a billion is 20 trillion, not 20 quadrillion. I know it's just a careless error, but given the nature of our conversation, I can't resist needling you about it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

rotanimod · #85 04-06-2007, 05:54 PM

The edge can only approach 100%, it can't hit it. The hypothetical I'm proposing is indeed an extremely extreme case, but it demonstrates that the edge cannot overcome extremely cold cards.

Let's say you are at the main event, first table. You know EVERYONE'S cards. You are the button. First hand, UTG goes all-in. He has those magnificent pocket aces. You have...well, anything else. Everyone folds to you, you fold, blinds fold. UTG won blinds.

Next hand, you are in the CO. Again, UTG goes all-in. Lo and behold, he has aces! Everyone folds. UTG wins blinds. This happens every hand, until YOU are UTG. You get dealt 23o and see that UTG+1 was dealt pocket aces this hand. You fold, UTG+1 pushes all-in, everyone folds.

Play at the table continues in this manner. You never get to win a pot as someone always has aces and you never do. If you do play a hand, you will have about an 80% chance of busting against the aces, as they will always have you covered.

That being said, I do think the edge would be very near 100%. I have not done any math to approximate it, but it seems quite logical to have a 99%+ chance of winning the tournament. Only the most extreme cases seem to be able to prevent a win.

seemorenuts · #86 04-06-2007, 08:19 PM

My comments in caps:

[ QUOTE ]
LOL at "I don't think you could be relied on..." Based on what? YOUR COMMENT INITIALLY ABOUT 'YOU WON'T GET VERY FAR' WAS NONSENSICAL, IF YOU HAD READ THE THREAD YOU'D NOTICE SOMEONE INSULTED MY MATH ABILITY AND I WAS NOT CONDESCENDING. SO I INFER THAT YOU ARE UNRELIABLE AND CONFUSED. Just the general nature of Internet anonymity and wagering? I have paid bets before to other 2+2 members, including one mod. Plus we could use some type of escrow or something. But it doesn't look like you're actually wanting to lay 20000-1, so whatever. AFTER CALCULATING MY ODDS, I DECIDED TO GIVE YOU BETTER ODDS. YOUR STATEMENT WAS THAT THERE ARE OTHERS, THAT EXCLUDES YOU, SO ARE THERE ANY OTHERS BESIDES US THAT HAVE 2 800S? NO. Somehow I don't think I could rely on you to deliver me the size of your proposed wager either. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

WHY NOT? MY BIGGEST DECISION IN MY LIFE INVOLVED OVER 500B DOLLARS IN US CURRENCY (SEE MY OTHER POSTS). HOW ABOUT YOU?

I got two 800's when I took the GRE in 2000, which is why I have been so confident that someone else in the thread has done it. HAVE THEY MADE IT EASIER? WERE THERE THREE SECTIONS AND/OR ESSAYS? HOW WAS YOUR VERBAL SCORE? I had essentially no time to spare on the analytical section and in fact had to make educated guesses on the last couple, as my time was short. I had tons of time left on the quantitative section. I don't have digital proof, but I guess if you're in my neighborhood and stop by, I can show you my score results sheet. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

SO DID YOU APPLY TO SEE THE ANSWERS TO FIGURE OUT IF YOU GOT ANY ANSWERS WRONG ON THE ANALYTICAL? YOU CAN SCAN YOUR SCORESHEET AND POST IT IF YOU LIKE.

My point was that you shouldn't rely on just beating (SEE, YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG HERE, JUST ADMIT IT) people over the head with your intelligence/accomplishments, no matter how impressive they are. Also, you should be cautious about laying 20000-1 when there is a chance someone knows something you don't.

I agree that I haven't contributed to answering the original question. I don't really have much to say that hasn't already been said.

SO THAT MEANS YOU DON'T SAY ANYTHING BECAUSE IT WAS SAID OR IT HAPPENS TO BE INCOMPLETE, INCORRECT, AND IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT YOU THINK, YOU HAVE NOTHING TO ADD BECAUSE YOU REALLY HAVEN'T THOUGHT OF THE PUZZLE OR YOU ARE CONFUSED AND GROUCHY?

By the way, 20000-1 on a billion is 20 trillion, not 20 quadrillion. I know it's just a careless error, but given the nature of our conversation, I can't resist needling you about it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I AM A GENEROUS MAN.

<font color="red"> So, simple question, oh great double 800er do you think it's more or less than 80% to win. Your fans want to know what you think. Be of service to the thread, why don't ya? </font>

seemorenuts · #87 04-06-2007, 08:25 PM

There has to be a time limit on this.

If anyone prior to my bet proposal who had posted scored two 800s on the GRE, please scan your scores and post them.

Otherwise, MCS owes me a billion dollars.

I am so nice, I gave him 20,000,000:1 .... that must be some kind of world record!

(no smiley because I'm serious)

P.S. 20000-1 is 19999, I didn't want to upset you over this

laurentia · #88 04-06-2007, 08:26 PM

To take real advantage you should be able to see at least the turn. As the blinds go up action will consist of mostly preflop raises and reraises. Even if you reraise after your partner have raised with his 76s and nobody moves in on you he might be forced to call and since he has around 43% chance might as well beats you.
Considering this as a typical scenario I don't think you are favorite to make even the final table.

seemorenuts · #89 04-06-2007, 09:47 PM

rotanimid, your extreme case is why I was thinking along the lines of 100 minus 10^-23 to 100 minus 10^-80 percent at first.

Again, my repeated clues should get you to 100%.

Jamie Gold. Amnesia. Tricks. Doyle Brunson.
Think outside the box--after all, it's poker, right?

The cat is out of the bag.

There are still posters who are thinking of individual hands, this is not so productive.

I'm going to get a new wave of criticism for this, but:

you don't need to call raises early on, even with KK;
more often, if you are raising, you are open min-raising;
otherwise, you are limping, checking and folding early in the tournament because you KNOW YOUR EDGE far exceeds any known authentic edge that the pros have today--partial omniscience, no human has that so persistently.

Hey, MCS, over or under 80%?
You can get other posters to pay me $10000 each, you only need what, 100,000 2+2ers?

durron597 · #90 04-09-2007, 04:45 PM

i would play 100% of pots that this player enters. my cards don't matter if i have the ability to know how hard or soft this player has hit various board etc. i would win every blind battle vs. him and i would always know if he is stealing. i would say my chances of winning the tournament would be upwards of 25%. There are still times when I would have to survive an allin with AA etc. and call semibluff allins when I have top set or w/e against a flush draw against some guy who isn't the guy on my right but i think it is unlikely that i would be allin for my whole stack more than a few times.