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#1
04-05-2007, 03:43 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm curious. You make it 500, UTG calls, UTG2 folds. Flop is like, A94r. UTG pushes. You? [/ QUOTE ] You are worried about something that happens 1/6 times on the flop (and by the way you hit a set some of that time anyways that an A flops and have a decent chance of stacking a villian early with nothing behind to work with)... If villian wants to get goofy with QQ, JJ, or TT this early when an ace flops... then let him... How could you possibly play this scared and ever expect to win... I'm curious... What line are you taking here??? 
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#2
04-05-2007, 03:49 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ok, I'm curious. You make it 500, UTG calls, UTG2 folds. Flop is like, A94r. UTG pushes. You? [/ QUOTE ] You are worried about something that happens 1/6 times on the flop (and by the way you hit a set some of that time anyways that an A flops and have a decent chance of stacking a villian early with nothing behind to work with)... If villian wants to get goofy with QQ, JJ, or TT this early when an ace flops... then let him... How could you possibly play this scared and ever expect to win... I'm curious... What line are you taking here??? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know, those starting stacks are mighty short. I wasn't advocating anything in that post, I wanted to see what other people were thinking. I don't think you can raise to ~400-500 preflop without considering that possibility, since it's going to be a PSB for either of the two guys who will be acting before you to push the flop, or bet enough that they're effectively pot committed anyway. Essentially, raising to any sort of normal amount here (3x previous raise + extra juice for caller) is putting you in a potentially difficult spot postflop because of the size of the potential pot compared to the players stack sizes. I wonder if reraising to 300 here might be better. We are at 10/20 here, our opponent made it 5xBB, so do we really want to go to 20-25xBB? You risk less, you'll still often get at least 1 of the 2 opponents to fold, and still may be able to get away from the hand on a bad flop.
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#3
04-05-2007, 04:03 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Ok, I'm curious. You make it 500, UTG calls, UTG2 folds. Flop is like, A94r. UTG pushes. You? [/ QUOTE ] You are worried about something that happens 1/6 times on the flop (and by the way you hit a set some of that time anyways that an A flops and have a decent chance of stacking a villian early with nothing behind to work with)... If villian wants to get goofy with QQ, JJ, or TT this early when an ace flops... then let him... How could you possibly play this scared and ever expect to win... I'm curious... What line are you taking here??? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know, those starting stacks are mighty short. I wasn't advocating anything in that post, I wanted to see what other people were thinking. I don't think you can raise to ~400-500 preflop without considering that possibility, since it's going to be a PSB for either of the two guys who will be acting before you to push the flop, or bet enough that they're effectively pot committed anyway. Essentially, raising to any sort of normal amount here (3x previous raise + extra juice for caller) is putting you in a potentially difficult spot postflop because of the size of the potential pot compared to the players stack sizes. I wonder if reraising to 300 here might be better. We are at 10/20 here, our opponent made it 5xBB, so do we really want to go to 20-25xBB? You risk less, you'll still often get at least 1 of the 2 opponents to fold, and still may be able to get away from the hand on a bad flop. [/ QUOTE ] There is 2 big reasons that I dont like raising to 300... 1. It looks weaker and is not the standard play, which may induce a shove on the flop more often then the standard 400 bet when that ace does flop (still not sure this is our big concern though) because villian may now believe you are weak and try to take it away from you... 2. and probably more importantly, this will almost always induce the following action... UTG calls, UTG2 calls... they are getting to good of odds to not see a flop here... now when the A flops you are definatly having to let it go... one of these guys has an ace... and you have just increased the likelyhood of someone drawing out on you with other hands as well... But like I said before you really shouldnt be concerned with the ace flopping possibility, just make the standard play and let the math win out in the long run Disciple
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#4
04-05-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Ok, I'm curious. You make it 500, UTG calls, UTG2 folds. Flop is like, A94r. UTG pushes. You? [/ QUOTE ] You are worried about something that happens 1/6 times on the flop (and by the way you hit a set some of that time anyways that an A flops and have a decent chance of stacking a villian early with nothing behind to work with)... If villian wants to get goofy with QQ, JJ, or TT this early when an ace flops... then let him... How could you possibly play this scared and ever expect to win... I'm curious... What line are you taking here??? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know, those starting stacks are mighty short. I wasn't advocating anything in that post, I wanted to see what other people were thinking. I don't think you can raise to ~400-500 preflop without considering that possibility, since it's going to be a PSB for either of the two guys who will be acting before you to push the flop, or bet enough that they're effectively pot committed anyway. Essentially, raising to any sort of normal amount here (3x previous raise + extra juice for caller) is putting you in a potentially difficult spot postflop because of the size of the potential pot compared to the players stack sizes. I wonder if reraising to 300 here might be better. We are at 10/20 here, our opponent made it 5xBB, so do we really want to go to 20-25xBB? You risk less, you'll still often get at least 1 of the 2 opponents to fold, and still may be able to get away from the hand on a bad flop. [/ QUOTE ] I don't like 300 much. I think it is likely to trigger more calls behind. Also, I think 500 is easier to commit other people to the pot. For example, AK may not fold an all babies flop, assuming incorrectly they have 6 live outs. I think the EV we gain by limiting the number of opponents (but not decreasing the overall pot size, 3 players at 500 = 5 players at 300) overwhelms the ability to get away from Axx flops painlessly (where x is not a king, and the flop is not monotone to our K).
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#5
04-05-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
I guess my point is that if you do bet 500, then you need to be planning ahead and have already decided what you're going to do on flops of certain less-than-desirable textures, barring any additional reads you get. Betting 300 gives you a lot more flexibility postflop.
Quite frankly, I'd probably push preflop before I'd raise to 500, that's enough of my stack that I'm willing to just push and hope one of them has AK or QQ or something, given that one raised 5xBB and the other flat-called.
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#6
04-05-2007, 04:18 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
[ QUOTE ]
I guess my point is that if you do bet 500, then you need to be planning ahead and have already decided what you're going to do on flops of certain less-than-desirable textures, barring any additional reads you get. Betting 300 gives you a lot more flexibility postflop. Quite frankly, I'd probably push preflop before I'd raise to 500, that's enough of my stack that I'm willing to just push and hope one of them has AK or QQ or something, given that one raised 5xBB and the other flat-called. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I'm getting it in on any flop other than Axx. There are other flops I'd rather not see (Ts9s8s with KhKd), but I'm willing to call a PSB with an overpair. You haven't focused on the benefits of the 500 raise, namely getting calls from TT on Q74 boards, and AK on T38 boards, and KQ on T95 boards. These hands will get away more often the less we bet preflop. And these flops (this texture) happen much much more than Axx.
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#7
04-05-2007, 04:23 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
AK isn't getting away preflop. TT might. KQ would.
I'm not saying there aren't benefits, I just think the negatives outweight them. 500 just seems like way too much here, I dunno. 400 seems a lot better. I'm not that scared about a multiway pot either. It makes it easier to get away when an A does flop (since as you said, if it's a 3-way pot, it's quite likely someone does have an ace) and it makes it easier for at least one of your opponents to make a hand worse than yours too, as you noted. I'm just looking for some sort of happy medium here. Pushing has to be grossly +EV, and I'm doubting other bet sizes will be significantly better.
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#8
04-05-2007, 04:26 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
I just think you are playing a little to scared seke2... this is actually a really good spot for you... as far as bet sizes I still like my original 400 suggestion... 300 and 500 induce more plays from aggresors IMO... being early a shove is not terrible as it will get a call by weaker holdings this early in a live tourney... I think I like...
400 > 500 > Shove > 300
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#9
04-05-2007, 04:41 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
[ QUOTE ]
AK isn't getting away preflop. TT might. KQ would. I'm not saying there aren't benefits, I just think the negatives outweight them. 500 just seems like way too much here, I dunno. 400 seems a lot better. I'm not that scared about a multiway pot either. It makes it easier to get away when an A does flop (since as you said, if it's a 3-way pot, it's quite likely someone does have an ace) and it makes it easier for at least one of your opponents to make a hand worse than yours too, as you noted. I'm just looking for some sort of happy medium here. Pushing has to be grossly +EV, and I'm doubting other bet sizes will be significantly better. [/ QUOTE ] I would bet if one of the initial two guys has KQs, that they are calling a raise to 500 at least 50% of the time. These short stacked live donkaments are donkament deluxes. TT is virtually never folding to 500 from any spot on the table. Only an old nit or a thinking player is folding, but your average donk in this tourney is calling with TT (or jamming lol). This isn't gonna play like a Stars 109, more like a 10/180. Or a $11 turbo. I don't hate 400, I don't hate a shove. My pref is 500. I don't like 300.
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#10
04-05-2007, 04:35 PM
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Re: What amount you would be
Thanks for all the replies.
I bet $500 hoping one of them would think it's a squeeze play and come back over the top, or if they called be pot committed with any raise post flop. What actually happened is both instant folded. UTG even said "You want it that bad have it" Thought maybe my line was weirder than I thought.
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