200NL KK Bad fold?

plsfoldthx · #1 04-05-2007, 05:02 AM

http://www.pokerhand.org/?968614

he is 10/5 after 500+ hands

Big_Jim · #2 04-05-2007, 05:19 AM

looks good

plsfoldthx · #3 04-05-2007, 06:10 AM

Someone told me bad fold for these reasons... Someone pick at our logic

you beat a lot more hands than you lose to. you lose to like 2 hands, AA and an 8.

ok if hes a nit, then he doesnt have an 8, so he either has 99 or AA. Hes almost always reraising with AA, so thats gone. So he has 99 or one of the following 55,66,77 as feeler bets. or 1010,JJ,QQ which you beat, or kings which you tie

I reply

55 66 77 dont check raise as a feeler. TT JJ QQ always bets the flop. I had position and I potted it. I play like 23% of my hands so wouldn't he like a cheaper feeler bet? If he bet the pot, since he's first to act, would be cheaper. I couldn't continue with AK .. i usually dont reraise reraise postflop like that with a really good hand

But I think you may have a point an 8 is not in the 10% range. But it's only like 500 hands.. could be calling with 89s 87s A8s

yea he's a nit preflop but that also shows hes a nit post flop. I don't see him commiting half his stack without a made hand here.

he replies:

these assumptions are all wrong. all all wrong. you lose to one hand 99. Most people will slowplay 99 so you can hit an A or a King unless he was able to peg you for a big hand, which he shouldnt be able too. If hes a nit, then hes reraising AA, hes not taking a flop out of the BB and getting all cute with it. I don't know what games you play, but most of the time it gets checked back to the bettor. I dont know why you would think TT JJ QQ always fire the flop.

he plays tight over 500 hands which isnt that many. You dont think hes raising you there with QQ, JJ. i guarantee he is. he isnt going to fold ,and hes not going to call cause a spade or A, K will make his decision much harder. Right there is two hands you dominate, compared to the AA or 99 which i would say there is a much greater chance he A) slow plays the 99 and B) he is almost always reraising with AA

i reply:

I can't see TT JJ QQ cold calling preflop honestly. He raises his top 5% so I think I wouldve seen a reraise from JJ TT QQ. Cold call from 99, 89s, 87s. Slow played aces seem likely too since I raised early and it folded to him in big blind, he didn't need to drive anyone out.

he replies:

playing scared ftl, you are ahead here ALOT more often than you are behind. I can guarantee that. If you arent putting it in here, what on gods name are you waiting for

HaiaN · #4 04-05-2007, 06:44 AM

I don't like ... your friend explained it very well imo
But I honestly don't know how to proceed optimally.

plsfoldthx · #5 04-05-2007, 07:16 AM

call and reevaluate on turn?

Rainclouds · #6 04-05-2007, 07:25 AM

I'm shoving the flop. The fact that he is 10/5 makes it more reasonable that he has QQ/JJ/TT and didn't reraise preflop. He was planning to check-raise you, as he expected you to bet on this flop. His preflop stats don't say anything about his postflop play, so he could very well call your shove on the flop, while there are no overcards on the board yet.

I agree with your friends reasoning.

Djeorge · #7 04-05-2007, 07:27 AM

I'm stacking off here. There aren't many hands in a nit's range here that beat you, and IME players with these sort of stats like to make moves on my cbets on this type of board and follow through on the turn with KQo or something. So I'm calling and pushing over a turn bet.

Grim Reapa · #8 04-05-2007, 11:18 AM

I would shove. Youre good here enough for the 1.6 - 1 you get for a push.

Villain always slowplays 88 99 so he can get his stack in w a turn raise (Balluga Theorem i think) - and prob doesnt call oop with 89s,87s or A8s anyway.

I dont use HUD but find 10/5's dont like to reraise pre without AA KK - so TT QQ JJ AsQs AsJs JsTs make up a huge % of his range. So shove = high variance but prob +ev, at least on Party it does :-)

But this is my 1st post so i know nothing!

GittyUP · #9 04-05-2007, 11:22 AM

Snap shove for your friends reasons.

CobraGoat · #10 04-05-2007, 11:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm shoving the flop. The fact that he is 10/5 makes it more reasonable that he has QQ/JJ/TT and didn't reraise preflop. He was planning to check-raise you, as he expected you to bet on this flop. His preflop stats don't say anything about his postflop play, so he could very well call your shove on the flop, while there are no overcards on the board yet.

I agree with your friends reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

Additionally against a range of 88+,ATs+,A8s,KQs,JTs, its 62/38 in favor of hero.