NL50: Set of Kings, foldable?

[cyg]

Hello,

so I had a very interessting hand yesterday while playing NL50. My read on that guy was pocket Aces, but I thought that from preflop to river. My reasons where that he never reraised, this time he did it very light, and then he called my turn bet pretty quickly. And well River.. see it yourself.

Can I ever fold this hand to a 47.2/18.27/1.02(104) guy with such a read?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $17.20
UTG+1: $61.55
CO: $63.95
cyg: $85.90
SB: $52.25
BB: $93.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) cyg is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">cyg raises to $2.5</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $6</font>, UTG folds, cyg calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($12.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $10</font>, cyg calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($32.75, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">cyg bets $25</font>, BB calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($82.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in $52.7</font>, cyg?

Results:
Final pot: $135.45

[Machavelli]

This could easily be a flush, lower full house, AK even. Fold if you hate money.

This should be called every time.

[Debaser]

Wow please tell me you didn't fold here. No way you can put someone who plays 42/18 on exactly AA and even if he flips his cards up and shows you the AA first you should still call. Don't ever fold hands like this on the river, no matter how good you think your reads are, he will show up with all sorts of things you wouldn't believe more than he shows you AA.

[avfletch]

104 hands really isn't enough to decide that he 'never reraises'.

Let's say it was 1004 hands and he's never reraised preflop so you're putting him squarely on AA. Why did you flat call the flop?

[cyg]

I did not fold [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] and he had Aces but I was really really wondering if I can ever fold this and go with my guts. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think it's -EV to fold right?

I flatcalled to reraise him on turn and get an extra bet out of his hand. I vary my play there from time to time, usually I just reraise straight forward.

[cyg]

saw one guy doing the same line to me with a higher fullhouse, not the nuts though. And deep inside I was praying for AK or 88 or something crappy like that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[limit refugee]

If you had him on aces, why didn't you raise the flop? I'd want to make sure his juicy stack ended up all in there.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello,

so I had a very interessting hand yesterday while playing NL50. My read on that guy was pocket Aces, but I thought that from preflop to river. My reasons where that he never reraised, this time he did it very light, and then he called my turn bet pretty quickly. And well River.. see it yourself.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given villains flop and turn action, why couldn't it have been queens (or jacks)? (by the way, I'm assuming you're removing kings from his range due to your cards, no?)

Also, if you're so sure he has aces (which is too narrow, IMO (and I think most here would think that JJ+/AK is reasonable for a range here)), then flat calling the flop is just bad. One thing to learn from playing poker is that playing fast will pay you off a lot more than trying to play tricky (which often times gives people "reasons" to fold). The flop is the best place to play fast. Hell, even the dreaded min-raise is fine here.

[EMc]

BBV.