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#11
04-03-2007, 09:22 PM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm virtually guaranteed to be a millionaire when I retire with some of the smallest risk you can take, as far as the market goes. I know you think you have the market cornered, but I'm telling you, consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate. [/ QUOTE ] Consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate, but where do you get your "guarantee to be a millionnaire" from? What is it you're investing in than is so sure? [/ QUOTE ] I'm 90% to be a millionaire by the time I'm 35 in just retirement accounts. Unless the entire world's economy goes crashing down. [/ QUOTE ] But this isn't really relevant without details such as- -your age now -your current retirement savings. I was asking the previous poster what he invest in that are so sure with very low risk. 
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#12
04-03-2007, 11:02 PM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
Yes, and I would like to know where the 90% figure came from.
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#13
04-04-2007, 01:34 AM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm virtually guaranteed to be a millionaire when I retire with some of the smallest risk you can take, as far as the market goes. I know you think you have the market cornered, but I'm telling you, consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate. [/ QUOTE ] Consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate, but where do you get your "guarantee to be a millionnaire" from? What is it you're investing in than is so sure? [/ QUOTE ] I'm 90% to be a millionaire by the time I'm 35 in just retirement accounts. Unless the entire world's economy goes crashing down. [/ QUOTE ] Spoken like someone who's never been through a bear market.
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#14
04-04-2007, 01:45 AM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm virtually guaranteed to be a millionaire when I retire with some of the smallest risk you can take, as far as the market goes. I know you think you have the market cornered, but I'm telling you, consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate. [/ QUOTE ] Consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate, but where do you get your "guarantee to be a millionnaire" from? What is it you're investing in than is so sure? [/ QUOTE ] I'm 90% to be a millionaire by the time I'm 35 in just retirement accounts. Unless the entire world's economy goes crashing down. [/ QUOTE ] Spoken like someone who's never been through a bear market. [/ QUOTE ] That's actually a good point. Wasn't thinking enough when I said it. Okay, let's rephrase. Guaranteed to be worth 8 figured by the time I retire unless the entire world's economy assplodes or the USA disappears. I obviously can't say we won't have a huge bear market in the next 10-15 years.
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#15
04-04-2007, 02:00 AM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
[ QUOTE ]
There are many stocks uncovered by "smart, dedicated, analysts". Sell side analysts are compromised by trying to curry favor with the company or their superiors at an investment bank. Analysts working at mutual funds are handcuffed by restrictive rules on what they can buy, and having to publicly announce their best ideas. So there are a few super smart guys at hedge funds who can't cover the entire market. There are many opportunities out there. If you understand value and work hard at it you should be able to beat the market. [/ QUOTE ] Not only that, but I haven't seen anything that shows the "smart, dedicated, analysts" have all that good a track record. These are the kind of guys that have a "buy" on stocks like LEND at 25 and downgrade it to a "sell" after it drops to 4. The other thing to remember is there are all sorts of reasons that a stock makes it onto a big brokerage recco list. Like to pump it after their mutual funds have loaded up on it, or to bail them out when they want to dump it, or to help out buddies that are stuck. The most blatant example is Cramer. There's no way he believes the crap he spouts on some of the garbage he pumps. Active stock picking is a good idea when somebody is willing to learn and put in the work.
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#16
04-04-2007, 02:04 AM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm virtually guaranteed to be a millionaire when I retire with some of the smallest risk you can take, as far as the market goes. I know you think you have the market cornered, but I'm telling you, consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate. [/ QUOTE ] Consistent returns of 11-14% are more than adequate, but where do you get your "guarantee to be a millionnaire" from? What is it you're investing in than is so sure? [/ QUOTE ] I'm 90% to be a millionaire by the time I'm 35 in just retirement accounts. Unless the entire world's economy goes crashing down. [/ QUOTE ] Spoken like someone who's never been through a bear market. [/ QUOTE ] That's actually a good point. Wasn't thinking enough when I said it. Okay, let's rephrase. Guaranteed to be worth 8 figured by the time I retire unless the entire world's economy assplodes or the USA disappears. I obviously can't say we won't have a huge bear market in the next 1 - 1.5 years. [/ QUOTE ] I'm still curious where your "guarantee" comes from. I assume you're investing in something - so what is it that gives you this guarantee?
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#17
04-04-2007, 03:26 AM
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Re: When is active stock picking a good idea?
Playing a lot of video games is certainly a good start, but I think there are quite a few people that probably fit that description. You really have to do a lot of homework beyond that if you want an edge.
I follow the MMO industry a little bit and I think it takes a lot more than video game playing experience to make intelligent investment decisions. It requires spending time reading quarterly reports and analyst reports of public companies (mostly Korean companies). Also looking at valuations, licensing agreements, private equity deals, and acquisitions and thinking about things from an investment point of view. For instance, consider EA's recent investment in companies like Mythic and Neowiz and the implications it has for similar companies. Trying to keep up to date with industry metrics, like subscribers and peak concurrent users. Reading as many industry websites and blogs as you can. I also know a couple of people in the industry and try to discuss investing, current events, and industry trends with them. I think all of these things can help an individual investor in beating the market. Personally I think the MMO industry is going to blow up and there is a lot of money to be made if you take the time to educate yourself (Though the vast majority of the current crop of MMOs are going to be abject failures, there are at least a couple of publicly traded companies I think are absolute layups). What is your opinion on the industry? Besides Starcraft, what are some of the next big MMO and how do you think you can you make money off them?
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