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#31
04-02-2007, 06:59 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
Mostly 1sts will be typical. The clue is in the question. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I don't...please enlighten me. 
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#32
04-02-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would think that every single one of you come in third more often than first or any other place. True or not? In nine handed sit n gos with 50 30 20 splits. I'd guess the typical pro comes in first about 11%, second about 13% and third about 16%. Is that about right? [/ QUOTE ] No. It is like saying that a typical chess pro wins because he knows a lot of theory. Judging by their opening preparation Aronian or Morozevich know relatively little but they are still exremely successful as it can be seen in their Elo rating which is 2744 and 2741 respectively. [/ QUOTE ] That's a typical fallacy about players who chose offbeat openings. Aronian* and especially Morozevich know a lot, just not about mainstream openings. Try to take on Moro in the Chigorin or the Albin and you'll see what I am talking about. He is as much of a specialist in these openings than Svidler is in the Ruy Lopez or Kramnik is in the Petroff. About the initial question by David, I think it's just the normal distribution. You usually make the bubble with the lowest stack most often, therefore you finish third most often and so on. *Aronian is just not honest about his preparation. You can be sure that he is working 8 hours each day with Fritz or Rybka like everyone else. [/ QUOTE ] You would have made sence if your reference to normal distribution is either in your first or third paragraph. The second one doesn't qualify. E.g.: Even the top chess players memory follows a normal distribution. Aronian's is on the left end and that's why he can't compete in memorizing openings and is forced to improvise early on.
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#35
04-03-2007, 04:14 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
David, fwiw, i dont think anyone in the world right now is getting that sort of ridiculously awesome distribution in the 100+ buyin sngs. 40% itm is just incredibly sick, even with that high a % of 3rds. i wouldnt be surprised to see something like 12/11/13 type distribution, but that is still pretty solid. the bigger buyin sngs are a TON tougher than they used to be.
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#36
04-03-2007, 06:07 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
? Imagine 9 players of similar strength. Your expected finish is 5th place (actually a little less according to your edge over the field). According to the normal distribution sometimes you finish 3rd, less often 2nd and less often 1st.  I mean it's no wonder you don't finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd the exact same amount of times. [/ QUOTE ] Ok... I have read this thread up onto now... I can't even fathom what the responses after this one are... However I would like to suggest to you that Burger King hires year round. Jesus Christ dude. I can't believe what I just read.
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#37
04-03-2007, 10:02 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
 I'm not great at SNGs, but this distrubtion makes alot of sense to me. I have played a lot of them where the situation is, there are 4 players left, blinds are getting big and on only one player has a reasonable chip lead. The other three go after blinds, until eventaully 2 are drawn into a flip. If this is me, I either go out in 4th, or have a healthy stack to go after 1st. Usually the shorter stacked player that didnt get involved in the flip goes out third.
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#38
04-03-2007, 10:33 AM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
*Aronian is just not honest about his preparation. You can be sure that he is working 8 hours each day with Fritz or Rybka like everyone else. [/ QUOTE ] Dude 100% correct, all GM's lie about this kind of stuff. What folks say and what they do are often two different creatures.
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#39
04-03-2007, 12:45 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ? Imagine 9 players of similar strength. Your expected finish is 5th place (actually a little less according to your edge over the field). According to the normal distribution sometimes you finish 3rd, less often 2nd and less often 1st. I mean it's no wonder you don't finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd the exact same amount of times. [/ QUOTE ] Ok... I have read this thread up onto now... I can't even fathom what the responses after this one are... However I would like to suggest to you that Burger King hires year round. Jesus Christ dude. I can't believe what I just read. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I didn't think it through and just made a comment based on my own "gauss curve". As you can see, the gauss curve is also visible in the graph from that other dude. In my opinion if you just look at it, then it can be easily misleading. It's certainly not a flat line of equal finishes that the 9-sided flip would suggest. The good thing is that you can always find smart people on 2+2 who spot errors and correct them.
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#40
04-03-2007, 01:19 PM
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Re: Question For Sit n Go Pros
We all have brain freezes. I'd rather be someone who dares to get into mathematical territory where I'm not fully comfortable, rather than a typical twoplustwo nit who just waits for someone to make a mistake and jumps on it, and who learns nothing.
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