200NL flush vs passive opponent

[zatacka]

Reads: doesnt know that much, just got 27 hands on him, seemd to be very passive though.
40 / 0 / 0.25 so far

Blinds: $1/$2
5 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $351.94
CO: $215.70
Button: $316.20
Hero: $213.70
BB: $69.12

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $10</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($23, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $20</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($63, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($63, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $49</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $98</font>

call or raise?

[MTSuper7]

As played, just call even though against this type of opponent you're probably beat. His flop call of your bet makes me think he must have also had a pair with two spades (say 10-J of spades). Wondering if most people would bet the turn here considering the number of likely outs we've picked up (decent chance that a 4, 5 or spade on river all give you best hand). I suppose against this opponent we have less fold equity than usual, so checking is fine. I don't think a raise on the river makes any sense because we're only going to get called by a hand that beats us, right?

[Mike MacIntosh]

I push on the river. Looks like he slow rolled some 2pair/str8/set type of hand.

[snakekilla88]

raise ai, its a suckout if a 40/x has you beat here. Go busto and dont even thin twice about it!

[wrschultz]

I would probably bet the turn here unless you think he's just the type to routinely keep calling with A5o here.

As played I'm pushing the river though and expecting to get called by all kinds of crap.

[syphlix]

i'm not sure i like the pfr vs a passive cs

[Djeorge]

PF is pretty bad against the player you described but I'm going broke on the river always.

[raze]

Definitely don't raise PF, especially against this type of player.

Get AI on the river. A flush is possible, but so are 2pr / set / overpairs.

[MTSuper7]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably bet the turn here unless you think he's just the type to routinely keep calling with A5o here.

As played I'm pushing the river though and expecting to get called by all kinds of crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Should we not sense red flags being raised when a passive opponent min-raises us on the river? I'm not sure all kinds of crap would call a push here. From what I've seen, passive players don't tend to get aggressive without something strong. I do like the comment earlier that this could be a slowrolled set or two pair, as I have seen passive players donk off their chips in that sort of situation, so it's possible that a push is +EV against this type of player, especially since our hand is well enough disguised that we can't be put on a flush (though villain probably isn't even thinking about our hand at all). I think the big question is this: What does a min-raise on the river usually mean from a very passive opponent? I don't expect it to be good news.

[orange]

AI on the river