QQ overpair - villain betting into me

[orange]

that turn is a good one for your hand. you now nullify all other 2pair hands (not that there is a tremendous amount, but still a good thing to have). I would raise the turn to $5 and shove the river.

[AceKingHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
that turn is a good one for your hand. you now nullify all other 2pair hands (not that there is a tremendous amount, but still a good thing to have). I would raise the turn to $5 and shove the river.

[/ QUOTE ]Isn't this a bit too agressive? The 3 might have helped him, he might be playing AA or KK.

What about raising the turn, and folding the river for a pot-sized bet?

[Nick C]

One factor to consider is that some players love to all of a sudden lead the turn once the board pairs, even if it's just the bottom card that pairs. They seem to think this represents trips or something [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] (despite the fact that they would have tried to checkraise with turned trips).

Anyway, though, Villain does have TAG stats and you say he's reasonable, so he may not be as inclined to make the play I just described as a more fishy player. But this turn bet could still be an attempt to test out a worse PP that he thinks may be good on this raggy board, and it could also be a blocking bet with a flush draw (and Villain could be thinking the paired board will somewhat protect him from a raise).

To me, a turn raise seems good based on the idea that you're probably ahead of Villain's range. The main drawback is that a raise might (correctly) convince Villain that his pocket 5's are no good (whereas maybe he would have paid off or made a modest bet with that hand on the river if you just called the turn).

It sounds like you lost the hand, though, and of course it is possible Villain is ahead of you on the turn. There aren't very many certainties in a poker hand. (You can, for instance, pull a glorious limp-reraise versus the big LAG at the table, have him call that LRR with KQ versus your KK, call his all-in flop checkraise on T9x, and then watch a jack fall on the river, making his gutshot, and then watch him leave the table like four hands later, as happened to me in the biggest hand I played last night [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img].)

Anyway, the river card is not my first choice, but I do think you have an easy call, getting ~ 8:3.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The 3 might have helped him

[/ QUOTE ]

It's possible, but there probably aren't very many hands this Villain is playing UTG with a 3 in them, and this becomes even more true once we consider that he called your preflop raise.

[Poker monkey]

FWIW I called and he had AA, so I think I lost pretty much the minimum, unless I'd folded the river. I can't really see what a TAG is betting on this river that I beat.