NL10 - AKo - facing all-in on flop

[AceKingHigh]

Hi all,

I decided to give hand analysis a go. During the month April, I will dedicate a large percentage of my poker time to hand analysis. Here is my first hand. I have no reads.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($4.18)
Button ($2.25)
SB ($7.64)
Hero ($11.73)
UTG ($3.53)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, UTG calls $0.30, SB folds.

Flop: ($0.90) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.45</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG goes all-in</font>, Hero ???

I think it is a clear call:

- I have two overcards which might win, although they might give him two pair, as these players like to play hands like KJ, AT, ...
- I have inside straight draw.
- I have backdoor flush draw.

What do you think? Do you like my continuation bet?

Thanks!

[AceKingHigh]

Hmm, I did some further thinking, the three A's and three K's are no clear outs (it might give him two pair), so basically I am hoping for the four Q's or two running diamonds. The pot is $4.48 and I need to call $2.68, which is 1.67-to-1. I need 10 outs are better here. So, fold?

Was my continuation bet too low?

[theflyingcow]

Continuation bet's fine. This is a clear fold. Though he might do this with a flush draw and you may be ahead, your A/K outs are not necessarily clean, so in reality you'd hope to see the 3 non-diamond Q's come on the board. $2.68 more gives you really crap odds to draw so if you call you have to be sure you're ahead over 50% of the time.

[AceKingHigh]

I agree. I don't think he might be making this play with a flush draw, as I have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which means that he is going for the second high flush, which is not that probable.

[bozzer]

continuation bet was too small. make it at least 3/4 pot OOP to get better information if he smoothcalls. then fold to the push.

[Nick C]

I think it's closer than it looks on first glance. Versus a short-stack, you're probably ahead more often than you think (and not always just against a good draw).

Anyway, at the table I would probably say the hell with it and call -- partly just to try to get the short-stack to either buy in again or leave the table -- although I do think folding is probably a little better if we look at this hand in isolation. But short-stacks do get reckless sometimes both with their preflop calls (which is bad) and with their preflop and postflop aggressiveness (which isn't so bad at all -- the instinctive "what the hell; I'm all-in" attitude that short-stacks sometimes adopt does have definite strategic justifications), and I think you will often have a full 10 outs here when you are behind.

[bozzer]

a wide range for a decent player here:

Board: 2d Jd Th

equity
Hand 0: 28.970% { AdKc }
Hand 1: 71.030% { TT+, AJs, KdQd, KJs, QJs, JTs, 9d8d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }


a ?? range for a bad player here:

Board: 2d Jd Th

equity
Hand 0: 37.937% { AdKc }
Hand 1: 62.063% { 88+, AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, 98s, AJo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }