($16 turbo stars) Fun bubble hand, using SnGPT lesson

[FuriousD]

If he's decent he's shoving all but 40% of hands, at least. If he's good he's shoving any 2 100% of the time.

Edit: was doing the calculations for an open shove by the small blind. Oops.

[FuriousD]

What about the other players?

If the villain is the only decent player, shouldn't you fold a significant number of hands that SNGPT says are profitable? We should be in okay shape if we fold here if the other two villains are going to be making mistakes.

[RexWoo]

Q2o is a call if he push 60% +.

Button should probably not push 100% here if SB is descent as :
* he should be called a huge % of the time
* if he folds, SB should be shoving 100% if he has a brain.

I don't know exactly what a correct range for btn is, but it's probably in the 70-85% zone.

So Q2o is a call (that I would miss 100% of the time).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the other players?

If the villain is the only decent player, shouldn't you fold a significant number of hands that SNGPT says are profitable? We should be in okay shape if we fold here if the other two villains are going to be making mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

the other players were also pretty decent (especially the small blind)

edit: that's not necessarily true since those two guys have most of the chips

[Bubblefish]

I think the equilibrium is: Button push 36%, SB call 30% and bb call 37%.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]
RESULTS part 1:

I had Q2o

now what

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold Q2o.

[Soft]

I would rather be pushing than calling on the bubble. Calling with Q2o is terrible IMO even you think it might be a coinflip. Q2o isnt doing well all-in even youre getting 2:1 on your money I would think diffrent.
The first thing I think about when shorthanded is situational poker, I first think what situation im in if I fold and if I call. If you call and lose youre as good as out of the tourney and you got no fold equity and they got either.
If you play perfect ICM strategy I would rather fold and push on the next hand if folded to because the big stacks are still under the pressure with blinds 200/400 and 25 ante they only got 10xBB and you still got fold equity against them.

[evasive]

If I give the pusher a bigger stack , so that we are eleminated if we lose, obviously SNGPT says we call a lot tighter. I suppose it depends on how much value you give to your losing stack as compared to icm. Does giving the button say 2000 chips (and removing them from UTG) produce a practical answer?

[Soft]

In this situation, using ICM calculator tells me that just to get EV+ by 0,2% calling with Q2o button needs to push with 61% of his hands, so I believe it would be a bad call here. With 4 players left a 60% pushing range is a lot and it feels a lot, because if a player just has to keep his stack intact he needs to push 25% of his hands. Here we talk about a button that should be so pushy that he steals the blinds more than 2 times every round.