50NL Rivered Str8. Paired Board.

[spacetime]

You are correct in focusing on analyzing his preflop range here. 50/30 is wide, which is why I think just calling it fine. J8-J10, Aj are all possibilities, KQ is also.

The $3 turn bet could mean a few different things. I think it is doubtful that he is betting with complete air here as that is a very scary board against 2 opponents. IMO it is more likely that he is a) insanely strong (J or a boat) or b) doesnt like his hand but has something (turned a pair of queens). The river action eliminates mostly everything but a jack, boat or a higher 2 pair (more unlikely).

We are getting 2 to 1 which makes up for the Kj, Qj hands that he could be holding. I think calling is fine.

[avfletch]

Deciding you are beaten on the river and folding means that calling the turn was a small mistake. Deciding you have to call the river because you called the turn and hit is a BIG mistake.

Don't let small errors earlier in the hand make you feel compelled to go down a route that you now believe is wrong. You will make lots of mistakes (we all do that's why we analyse hands). Learning from your mistakes after the hand saves you money in the future. Doing so mid hand makes you money now.

For what it's worth I just fold on the turn. It's just not worth contesting this small pot with the ass end of a straight draw on a paired board.

[@PpReNt1cE]

[ QUOTE ]
For what it's worth I just fold on the turn. It's just not worth contesting this small pot with the ass end of a straight draw on a paired board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could not agree more. You are a very smart player.

[jjb108]

@PpReNt1cE - There are far more difficult situations than this one. I posted because I wanted to check out what other people thought. Turns out I'm not even close to being always right and can sometimes be results oriented. Read spacetimes answer again and you're first response. I think a call here is because I like money.

Spacetime, Scuba Chuck - I think this is the right way to think about the hand. I ended up discounting qj and kj as the bettor did nothing to protect his hand. This futher skews the range to random Jx and some random PP or a Q.

corsakh - IMO there are LAGs even at µSNL.

avfletch - You make a great point but I think I'm drawing essentially the nut str8 as AT should be a very small part of villains range. AT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] makes sense and I suppose they could think A high was good on the turn. Look at me,

Here's what I think in the end. In the short time I had, I added a busted draw to the villains range as noone seemed to want the pot and found AT to be very unlikely holding. As I said earlier, I'd be very surprised to see KJ. That leaves a lot of Jx hands and qx hands.

Obviously, I called. I was a bit off on villain's range.

Villain tables 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Thats right, Spades.

While it felt great picking off a bluff. I thought I was calling beating a weaker made hand and believe I made a good decision.