Omaha: High or low variance?

[bonovox007]

I have played a lot of Omaha and won a good amount from it and thought that I understood a lot about the game, but it seems that there is a lot of contradictory advice out there about the game that is making me question everything I think I know about it. We've all heard that for full ring Omaha hi/lo, the variance is much lower than for hold'em and stud. Also, that the win rate is higher (specifically 2 BB/hr as opposed to 1-1.5 for other games). How can both of these be true simultaneously? Variance goes both ways, and it doesn't seem like you can have a higher than normal win rate along with lower than normal downswings. And it seems that the variance is actually higher in Omaha than in hold'em because Omaha is much more flop dependent. If you don't get the cards, there's really nothing that you can do unlike, say, making a continuation bet with AK in hold'em or bluffing with scare cards in stud. It seems like when my draws aren't hitting in Omaha, that the swings last a lot longer, and are possibly more severe, than in hold'em (but probably not in stud). Also, some say that there's actually more variance in Omaha because even crap hands can hit the flop good and then, postflop, overtake hands that may have had a higher theoretical expectation preflop but just didn't hit this particular one. This sort of thing can go on for a long, long time in Omaha; much longer than in hold'em, it seems. So which is it, high variance or low? Or does it depend on the competition? I know there's a lot of truly atrocious Omaha players these days, but it seems you really need the cards to beat them, otherwise you can lose a lot in a downswing. Thank you for any and all responses. Also, in a somewhat related question: Rank the following games in terms of profitability and variance, assuming one has equal skill in all (which I believe I do):

$15-30 hold'em at Bellagio, $20-40 hold'em at Bellagio, $20-40 Omaha at Bellagio, $20-40 Stud at Bellagio, $2-5 NL hold'em at Bellagio

Thank you

[Tim299]

2-5 hold em (so many bad players play 2-5), 20-40 omaha (I don;t care what level you play omaha 8, you need to have great disipline. To me that is the key to winning in this game cause at any level there are going to be bad players playing this game), 20-40/15-30 about the same due to this is where you can run into some good limit players. This is a tough level to be good at depending on who you are sitting with, 20-40 stud hopefully you are with some live ones....This is how i think profiability plays out at these level. 2-5 is the best by far because I have never seen so many bad players in a game in my life.

[uminchu]

full ring hi/lo has less variance imo because the hands that you play have huge equity and often you will be splitting pots and still making small profit when hoping to scoop where as in hold em your almost never splitting so your winning or losing pots, fr omaha 8 as tim said requires great discipline but its also easily beatable to play silly monkeys throwing away their money.

Omaha high though leads to violent swings in br and monies made simply because of the principle you stated earlier,crap hands easily overtake Higher equity hands and can do so for a long period of time hence the addage that your never worse then 48 percent in omahahahaha

[chaos]

O/8 has lower variance and you can have a higher win rate than hold 'em.

I think a couple of factors contribute to this.

There are more truely awful O/8 players than HE players. Even weak HE players can recognize a terrible hand. Most will fold hands like 72o and 83o. In O/8 bad players do not recognize trash hands. There are O/8 players who are playing almost every hand and it makes me wonder which hands they actually are throwing away.

The fact it is a split pot game and that it plays slower than HE, lowers your hourly variance.

[BillytheKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
There are more truely awful O/8 players than HE players. Even weak HE players can recognize a terrible hand. ... There are O/8 players who are playing almost every hand and it makes me wonder which hands they actually are throwing away.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, witness this nlO8 hand (BB is .50):

UTG calls, UTG+1 raises all-in to $20.00, 6 folds UTG calls $19.50 with 7889r, flops the full house to scoop.

Then says "sick of these idiots pushing all-in pf"

Absolutely amazing flop skills!!

[bonovox007]

Thanks guys. What about Omaha/8 full ring versus NL hold'em full ring for profitabiity and variance. Say B&M $4-8 Omaha w/half kill versus $1-2 NL. I have both of these games where I live, am proficient at both, and there are horrible players at both. Which should I concentrate on?

[walsh313]

As an O8 player I hate admitting this, 1-2NL. In the 4-8 in my experience you will have at least 2 or 3 old players who sit there like rocks. This combined with the nature of limit makes it less profitable usually than NL game.

[Niediam]

I didn't actually read your post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Live o8 with 6-9 people seeing the flop = low varience.

Online o8 with 3ish people seeing the flop = high varience (similiar to online limit holdem).

[HarmonicaMan]

Low variance is due to split pot nature. You don't always win the whole pot (eg when the dog hits the river for his half). Also you don't always lose when you're behind because you have a share of low, say.

But when you scoop - you should be scooping more often on river than being scooped - you do so more confidently(more bets put in by you throughout the hand in general), and also there's usually larger pot than holdem due to the multi-way fish drawing with rubbish hands.

So winrate higher, variance lower.

Also raising preflop increases variance, but that's not to say you shouldn't raise pre-flop. And yes, as in all poker, everything depends on the competition.

Only draw to low in large pots. With smallish pots, you can fold low draws on the flop and not miss much value in this game. Draw to scoop if you can.

[Vertical Taco]

I agree with all posts and love the different aspects of this game....same with Stud H/L.....Personally I find Holdem has been overdone.....

My favourite thing though with Omaha H/L is the battle of the blinds when the Donkey makes the Low on the turn and gets into a raising war (playing limit in this situation).....then costs you MORE money cause they have jacked up the rake.....split pot.....oh noes.....its not......thank you live poker and your 6 dollar rake @ 10-20 Limit.....