$50PLO8 Flop Top Set in Position; Horrible Turn N River Bet?

[MotTrieuDong]

I usually play only scooper potential hands, but gave these cards a shot in LP.

Am I unnecessarily build the pot? =P Or am I forcing out hands that I potential split with 2345 A45x a59x

Or is the river bet good, if limper possibly has QJT9 for a scooper.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.75, 5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.75</font>, CO calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($11, 3 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5.5</font>, CO folds, MP1 calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($22, 2 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, MP1 calls.

Results:
Final pot: $66

[BillytheKidd]

I'm checking that turn as well (am I too weak?) I dont see any reason to build a pot with top set on a board with low and straight there, betting also pushes out weak lows and two pair hands that may "catch up" on the river. I think you make more/lose less by checking this turn.

Heads up river is fine, because you only hate 66.

[I dunno]

Turn is pretty opponent dependent, but looks alright to me. I think checking is fine too since you will get to see MP1's action before you have to act if CO bets.

[bbartlog]

I don't like the turn bet. Check/fold or check/call (if both opponents are staying in and/or opponent seems likely to be betting naked nut low) is the right move here as far as I'm concerned.

Possible positive outcomes from betting:
- both opponents fold
- both opponents call with A2xx / bad high and get quartered
- one opponent calls with nut straight, thinks you are betting the nut low, and gives you great implied odds if you make your FH on the river
- opponent calls with some junky hand like 3456, giving you a freeroll to the high since you've already got a better low

Possible bad outcomes:
- someone has the nut straight and raises you, or has the nut low and raises you, or has some other low plus straight combination and raises you, or decides that with two opponents it's time to go to war with the nut low plus nut flush draw, and raises you. You have a very difficult decision here if someone raises, which is a good reason not to bet.
- you get it HU with the nut low and are getting freerolled for the high. Depending on opponent's hand your chance at the low may be as good or better than their chance at the high (maybe opponent has A2TT or something) but with 678 and two spades out I think there are a lot of freerolls that don't look so good for you.
- someone cautious just calls with the nut straight or the nut low, then bets on the river (if you don't make your FH), leaving you with a difficult decision once more.

I guess if opponents are very passive it's not too bad. Most of the downside comes from the possibility of getting raised.

The river bet is fine. Maybe no one had the nut low, thinks you have it and are flogging it hard, and will pay off your FH with their straight.

[MotTrieuDong]

I bet $5.5 (half pot)on the turn to see if I'm playing against any nut straights(figured I would get C/R and I can muck my hand). I usually check this spot too. My flop and turn bet quite possibly looks like a nut low bet.

Villan ended up having [Tc 9s 8c 7d] - HI: a straight, Ten high

I've had a lot of history with Villan. He's only potting most of the time if he has nut/nut scooper hands.

[zizazziza]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the turn bet. Check/fold or check/call (if both opponents are staying in and/or opponent seems likely to be betting naked nut low) is the right move here as far as I'm concerned.

Possible positive outcomes from betting:
- both opponents fold
- both opponents call with A2xx / bad high and get quartered
- one opponent calls with nut straight, thinks you are betting the nut low, and gives you great implied odds if you make your FH on the river
- opponent calls with some junky hand like 3456, giving you a freeroll to the high since you've already got a better low

Possible bad outcomes:
- someone has the nut straight and raises you, or has the nut low and raises you, or has some other low plus straight combination and raises you, or decides that with two opponents it's time to go to war with the nut low plus nut flush draw, and raises you. You have a very difficult decision here if someone raises, which is a good reason not to bet.
- you get it HU with the nut low and are getting freerolled for the high. Depending on opponent's hand your chance at the low may be as good or better than their chance at the high (maybe opponent has A2TT or something) but with 678 and two spades out I think there are a lot of freerolls that don't look so good for you.
- someone cautious just calls with the nut straight or the nut low, then bets on the river (if you don't make your FH), leaving you with a difficult decision once more.

I guess if opponents are very passive it's not too bad. Most of the downside comes from the possibility of getting raised.

The river bet is fine. Maybe no one had the nut low, thinks you have it and are flogging it hard, and will pay off your FH with their straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
sums it up