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#1
03-27-2007, 07:11 PM
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A Recent Post
This won't exactly be a classic post, just a warning.
I remember about a week ago seeing a really good topic on here about how LAGs will rarely have hit flops after 3betting, of the texture 24T raindow or near. Before someone says it, I actually went looking through pages of this forum to find it but I can't. Anyway, I remember one example where the odds of them hitting were something like 0.41, and thus the general consensus was to push or raise. Now, I have been around at these stakes or slightly higher for a long time, but every time someone asks me the following question I don't really know, and I didnt see it covered before. Basically, by raising a raise or pushing, you are risking a hell of a lot more than gaining. Can someone tell me how that thread adapted to that? Was it possible overs? Was it a minimum % that you needed to be ahead in order to push? Sorry if this sounds confusing. 
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#2
03-27-2007, 07:14 PM
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Re: A Recent Post
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#4
03-27-2007, 07:21 PM
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Re: A Recent Post
Raising/Pushing on a bluff allows you to raise/push with the nuts and get action.
When you combine your bluff push with some form of equity, the profitability of the play sky-rockets. So if you are in the BB with 63os, you decide to squeeze a 3-bettor at $200 NL, ($200 effective stacks), you make it $27 to a button raisor of $8. The lag calls. The pot is $54. (forget small blind) Flop is A 7 3r. You check to villain, villain makes it $46. Pot is now $100, you need to call $46 and have $173 behind. If you shove, you win $100 59% of the time minimum. You probably can make villain fold a weak ace enough to account for %10 more equity. Round up for easy math, and say you win the $100 70% of the time. Let's say you get called. Villain has a set here (when they call) 11% of the time, and let's say the other 89% is Ax. You have roughly 25% equity on a $400 pot the 30% of the time you are called. 70% of the time you win $100. 30% of the time you lose $100 (expected return of pushing with 25% equity with a $400 pot is -$100). Total Profit: 0.7 * 100 + (0.3 * -100) = $40. EDITED FOR MATH SKILLZZZ Total profit: $10 High variance poker at its finest.
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#6
03-27-2007, 07:25 PM
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Re: A Recent Post
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#7
03-27-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: A Recent Post
[ QUOTE ]
Raising/Pushing on a bluff allows you to raise/push with the nuts and get action. When you combine your bluff push with some form of equity, the profitability of the play sky-rockets. So if you are in the BB with 63os, you decide to squeeze a 3-bettor at $200 NL, ($200 effective stacks), you make it $27 to a button raisor of $8. The lag calls. The pot is $54. (forget small blind) Flop is A 7 3r. You check to villain, villain makes it $46. Pot is now $100, you need to call $46 and have $173 behind. If you shove, you win $100 59% of the time minimum. You probably can make villain fold a weak ace enough to account for %10 more equity. Round up for easy math, and say you win the $100 70% of the time. Let's say you get called. Villain has a set here (when they call) 11% of the time, and let's say the other 89% is Ax. You have roughly 25% equity on a $400 pot the 30% of the time you are called. 70% of the time you win $100. 30% of the time you lose $100 (expected return of pushing with 25% equity with a $400 pot is -$100). Total Profit: 0.7 * 100 + (0.3 * -100) = $40. EDITED FOR MATH SKILLZZZ Total profit: $10 High variance poker at its finest. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks, thats the sort of thing. I think it needs to be done against decent players, obv. To the others, you will like the other thread...
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#8
03-27-2007, 07:46 PM
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Re: A Recent Post
Not decent players, but those who are more inclined to call 3-bets IP light... whoever they may be.
Bluffing profitability stems from: Chance of bluff success + pot equity. As I said in another thread while playing the role of Capt Obvious, you want to maximize both.
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