Folding JJ preflop

[Lambofbob]

Hey everyone, new poster here. I encountered a situation in a recent MTT that has been causing me some trouble, wondering if there was any advice.

Blinds were 2000/4000 with 200 ante, 7800 pot to start. 9 handed. 36 player left out of about 1900 entrants. I had 72000 in chips (M ~9). The player in first position has 66000 (M ~ 8.5). He had been raising big with medium Pairs (6's-10's) and AK/AQ all day, played about 30% of hands. I've played about 20%. In first position he raised to 20000. It folds to me on the button with JJ. I read him for 8's-10's or AK based on his patterns and push all in. He calls, shows 10's. He flops quad 4's and I'm left with 6000 chips. Needless to say next hand I was out in 36th.

While I read him for this, I almost folded preflop. My M was 9, but I was in 12th place out of 36. My reasoning for pushing was that I had this strong read, and that if he had any of those hands, an all in from a tight player after his first position 5xBB raise might induce a fold, and if he did call I would be a coinflip probably 20% of the time and 80/20 about 70% of the time. Based on position in the tournament, however, I feel like maybe I could have waited for a better spot. The players at the table were weak, and I feel pretty confident i could have made the FT. Any thoughts, fold or push? Thanks for any advice.

[Mingdu]

shows 10s but flops quad 4s?

You got your money in and were ahead. Nice read, nice shove

[Cablelessray]

yah, same question on the flopped quad 4's. anyway you mean to say his range was 88+/AK, right? it's a fine push and i'd make it any day, you are playing for first.

(bad beat story masked as a survey)

[sapsuckah]

Most posters' first posts are bad beat posts. Welcome to the forums, lamb... stick around and you'll learn a ton here.

But you played this right and you know it. You'll make more money getting to the final three in tourneys this big than if you bust out 10-18 about 40 times. Play to go deep and if you get busted on a beat like this sometimes, so be it.

Welcome again and be sure to post hands that confused you, not ones you got sucked out on.

Matt

[HitmanHaydon]

Why would you want him to fold if you thought he had a lower PP?

Pushing this all day long.

[RichC.]

Welcome to the forum. Easy push.

[Lambofbob]

Sorry, didn't mean to post a "bad beat masked as a survey." I was obviously ecstatic to get my money in that good, and I've been playing long enough that bad beats don't really phase me, so again sorry for the sukout story.
The real meat of my question was this: I was just more curious if anyone felt there was any kind of long term equity in laying a hand like that against someone with almost my stack. In the long term, do I make more money by folding a hand where I think there's a 20-25% chance I'm a coin flip, living to pick at the small stacks and hopefully going on further in the money? Also, my fold comment was more I hoped for a foldfrom an AK or AQ. I definitely want him to call with tens evey time. (PS- I'm more of a small ball type tourney player, so I tend to over-analyze homerun plays.). Thanks for the help, and I promise no more suckout stories!

[Mingdu]

Also ... don't post results

They are incidental to the correct decision and can influence responses

And next time make sure it is you that hits quads ... makes all decisions easier

[yNnOs]

Yea, tens hitting quad 4's threw me in a loop for a bit there. Are you using holographic cards? jk. Your read on less than JJ seems right; opening with 20K doesn't look like you have the second best hand. But you probably already knew that. Right play, bad result; fire up another.

[holdemft]

Yes, its a push. sorry about the Quad 10-4 good buddy. don't sweat the results, these are the kind of plays you have to make in a tournament to give yourself the best chances to win, and 80% of the time you'll win against Tens or fours with jacks.