ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[YANS24]

How did i do, my pitching ended up really good i think even though going in i was only thinking offense. I hate my outfield [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] thinking of dropping maddux for javier vazquez. Any help appreciated


C Brian McCann
1B David Ortiz
2B Josh Barfield
3B David Wright
SS Michael Young
CI Derrek Lee
MI Howie Kendrick
OF Johnny Damon
OF Scott Podsednik
OF Chris Duncan
Util Jason Giambi
Util Josh Willingham
BN Curtis Granderson
BN Melvin Mora
BN Coco Crisp

Pitching
SP John Smoltz
SP Brett Myers
RP Trevor Hoffman
RP Jason Isringhausen
P C.C. Sabathia
P Chris Young
P Derek Lowe
BN Ian Snell
BN Salomón Torres
BN Greg Maddux

A bunch of guys i was aiming for in the OF got snatched right before i was going to pick them, Markakis, Francour, Cudderyer. I had the 8th pick went with Ortiz over Utley still not sure it was right.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

so, I'm trying to come up with a model in excel which will help me evaluate trades. I suppose this is for mostly pre-season/early season trades, where PECOTA projections still are a very powerful tool.

here is what I did, all comments appreciated since I am new at this.

I have a spreadsheet of every players relevant PECOTA projections, which I grouped together by team. I made best guesses as to starting lineups, and summed up each team by their total projected stats. see below for 1 team.



I then took the sum of each team and grouped those together to see where each team stood in each category, and in total.
see below.


the goal is for me to be able to to cut/paste individual players from the top team sheet (for potential trades), have those changes flow through to the ranking sheet, so I can see if any particular trade moves me up or down in the overall ranking.

how does that look?

[waldo027]

Picked 3rd in a 12 team league, standard 5x5 scoring.

1. (3) José Reyes
2. (22) Grady Sizemore
3. (27) Andruw Jones
4. (46) Robinson Canó
5. (51) Carlos Delgado
6. (70) John Lackey
7. (75) Aaron Harang
8. (94) Matt Cain
9. (99) Jeff Kent
10. (118) Dan Haren
11. (123) Mike Mussina
12. (142) Jeff Francoeur
13. (147) Pat Burrell
14. (166) Jorge Posada
15. (171) Austin Kearns
16. (190) Mark Teahen
17. (195) Freddy García
18. (214) Adam Wainwright
19. (219) Anibal Sánchez
20. (238) Orlando Hudson

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
How did i do, my pitching ended up really good i think even though going in i was only thinking offense. I hate my outfield [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] thinking of dropping maddux for javier vazquez. Any help appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]

more league info plz. draft order also helps

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Picked 3rd in a 12 team league, standard 5x5 scoring.

1. (3) José Reyes
2. (22) Grady Sizemore
3. (27) Andruw Jones
4. (46) Robinson Canó
5. (51) Carlos Delgado
6. (70) John Lackey
7. (75) Aaron Harang
8. (94) Matt Cain
9. (99) Jeff Kent
10. (118) Dan Haren
11. (123) Mike Mussina
12. (142) Jeff Francoeur
13. (147) Pat Burrell
14. (166) Jorge Posada
15. (171) Austin Kearns
16. (190) Mark Teahen
17. (195) Freddy García
18. (214) Adam Wainwright
19. (219) Anibal Sánchez
20. (238) Orlando Hudson

[/ QUOTE ]

cano, delgado, and harang are reaches. however, i really like it from round 10 onward. B+.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
so, I'm trying to come up with a model in excel which will help me evaluate trades. I suppose this is for mostly pre-season/early season trades, where PECOTA projections still are a very powerful tool.

[/ QUOTE ]

not bad. this needs to be combined with a basic understanding of how variance will affect the standings.

for example, if the team with the highest projected steals total is 10 above you in sixth place, adding 11 steals will not equate to a five point expected gain in the standings. also you must consider that in a league with a lot of trading, teams will trend toward the mean in most categories as they search for balance in midseason.

still, this exercise will give you an idea of how to adjust standings gain points for your league setup, especially if you keep it up during the season.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
How'd I do? I pick 7th in a 16 team league. H2H, stat categories are R, H, HR, RBI, SB, K, AVG, OPS, IP, W, SHO (shut outs...so stupid), SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/BB (Yes, too many, but whatever)

1. (7) Chase Utley 2B
2. (26) Joe Mauer C
3. (39) Roy Halladay SP
4. (58) Paul Konerko 1B
5. (71) Juan Pierre CF
6. (90) Aaron Harang SP
7. (103) Bobby Jenks RP
8. (122) Eric Chávez 3B
9. (135) Álex Ríos RF
10. (154) Pat Burrell LF
11. (167) Todd Jones RP
12. (186) Josh Willingham LF
13. (199) Michael Cuddyer 1B,RF
14. (218) Freddy García SP
15. (231) Dave Bush SP
16. (250) Scott Olsen SP
17. (263) Dan Wheeler RP
18. (282) J.J. Hardy SS
19. (295) Pat Neshek RP
20. (314) Conor Jackson 1B
21. (327) Randy Winn LF,CF,RF
22. (346) Juan Uribe SS
23. (359) Luke Hochevar SP
24. (378) Javier López RP

I already dropped Hochevar and Lopez for middle relief (Rincon and Speier). I got Uribe in case he plays and I think that late he's not a bad pick to keep around. I like my top two picks as I think I got the best 2B, C in picks 20 places apart. But, maybe I didn't do so hot...let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, that's one loaded league.

i think you did a very good job tailoring your picks to the specifications of the league (pierre, mauer). not sure i like the halladay pick, but he's as good a bet as anyone to throw five shutouts for an extra five fantasy points.

given the league setup, i'm not sure todd jones is any better than a waiver wire middle reliever. trade him for a real shortstop if possible.

B+ overall.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Keepers league draft, 14 keepers. First 14 draft picks are my keepers...

10 teams...C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, IF, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, P, 4x BN

Standard 5x5 cats

1. (3) Robinson Canó 2B
2. (18) Carlos Guillén SS
3. (23) Derrek Lee 1B
4. (38) Carl Crawford OF
5. (43) David Wright 3B
6. (58) Justin Morneau 1B
7. (63) Rickie Weeks 2B
8. (78) Jeremy Bonderman SP
9. (83) Barry Zito SP
10. (98) Scott Kazmir SP
11. (103) Joel Zumaya RP
12. (118) Bobby Jenks RP
13. (123) Brad Hawpe OF
14. (138) Cliff Lee SP
15. (143) Chris B. Young OF
16. (158) Josh Beckett SP
17. (163) Jeff Francoeur OF
18. (178) Francisco Cordero RP
19. (183) Scot Shields RP
20. (198) Carlos Quentin OF
21. (203) Kevin Kouzmanoff Util
22. (218) Bobby Crosby SS
23. (223) Adam LaRoche 1B
24. (238) Kei Igawa SP
25. (243) Eric Chávez 3B
26. (258) Jason Varitek C
27. (263) John Maine SP

I definitely reached to take Chris Young with my first round pick, I am not sure about the rest...
Note: I am not going to win this year, but I'm hoping to build a contender by 2009.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think young is a reach at all, especially if you're playing for 2009. but why give up on 2007 when it looks like you have a solid core of keepers to build on?

A- for the non-keeper portion of the draft. lots of value.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
durron -

steals aren't what we think they're worth? in what other category can one dominant player account for HALF your teams value? certainly none in 5x5 play. i think you've got it way wrong. in fact, i wouldn't advise against taking reyes first OVERALL, so saying he's not even the best SS is nothing short of laughable. and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'M NOT PLAYING 5x5

[Your Mom]

5X5 Yahoo league, 12 teams, 2+2 league.

1. (8) Ryan Howard 1B
2. (17) Carlos Beltrán OF
3. (32) Roy Oswalt SP
4. (41) Roy Halladay SP
5. (56) Mariano Rivera RP
6. (65) Adam Dunn OF
7. (80) Chipper Jones 3B
8. (89) Raúl Ibañez OF
9. (104) C.C. Sabathia SP
10. (113) Josh Barfield 2B
11. (128) Adam LaRoche 1B
12. (137) Rich Hill SP
13. (152) Mark Teahen 3B
14. (161) Russell Martin C
15. (176) Orlando Cabrera SS
16. (185) Armando Benítez RP
17. (200) Curtis Granderson OF
18. (209) Greg Maddux SP
19. (224) Luis Castillo 2B
20. (233) José Contreras SP
21. (248) David Ross C