5CD: MTTs,S&Gs, Variance, Stats, Bad Beats, Bubbling...

[mpanzer]

I know there are places elsewhere in 2+2 targeting these topics, but they are mostly filled with Hold'em players, and they use just Hold'em stats and odds. Hold'em players are used to different prizes' structures, betting limits, 5 rounds of betting, community cards, and 'coin-flips' odds into the 60%x40% range. Omaha players can use a little of Hold'em stats and tactics but have their own forum as well. Stud players are used to face-up cards and remembering discarded cards, I would guess Hold'em fora are uselees to them too.

We all know 5 Draw is another game - the original one AFAIK - and was not 'designed' to give more action. I've usually played home games - with just 32 cards by the way, it is standard in Brazil - and online games in the B2B network since July 1st, 2005. Here is the only place where 5 Draw is seriously discussed - and I don't think other players can help us because, IMO, 5 Draw:
. Has just 2 rounds of betting and - usually - the second betting round is very dry.
. Tables are usually filled with just 5 or 6 players.
. Is usually played Limit or Pot Limit - I've never saw a No Limit 5 Draw game.
. Has odds ranging from something like 80-20 to 100-0! Unless two players have exactly the same five cards - the only perfect 'coin-flip', by the way - one is usually way behind.
. Has more showdowns with average and less than average hands - and less with 'all-ins' hands.
. S&Gs give just two prizes - usually 66% and 33%.
. 2-Table S&Gs give just 3 prizes - usually 50%, 30% and 20%.
. MTTs usually give 1/6 ITM positions.
. More than half of the players of MTTs are regulars and usually have notes taken from previous Tourneys.
.There are just a few places to play and just a few 5 Draw players as well - when compared to the Hold'em population.

So, after this lenghty, perhaps boring, introduction, and also knowing that we usually meet each other into the PL Tourneys - with the side effect that when we share our strategy/tactics/stats we are giving ammo to the enemy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] - these are some my questions:
.What do you think is average, bellow average or above average stats for 5 Draw players into S&Gs and MTTs? I mean ITM and ROI stats. Are them the same of HE players? Higher? Lower?
.What about variance? I guess we have less variance than HE?
.What are the bankroll needs for ring, S&G, and MTT 5-Draw?
.What is an acceptable 'I-bubbled-again' percentage in S&Gs and MTTs? I think I am, by the way, the king of the bubble, I can post my stats after if there is someone interested in them.
. To be a winner it is enough to play ring games in the 'tigh-aggro' mode like in HE or should we gamble a little with, let's say, flush draws because they have huge +EV post draw.
. I mean, is the post draw EV more important in 5 Draw than in other poker games?
. Whatever you wanna add...

Thanks for your patience,
Marcio

[Tom Bayes]

Marcio,
I sent you a PM with some of my stats, but here's some general speculations about MTT and SNG draw play.

Draw MTTs obviously draw far fewer players than those in holdem or other more popular games. The events at 24h usually draw about 60-100 players and the ones at PokerRoom about 100-120 players. The events at Planet Poker (which include some limit draw and even NL draw) are much smaller and rarely exceed 30 players these days. Sometimes a "MTT" at Planet doesn't fill more than one table.

One aspect of draw is that you will make many more final tables and have more top three finishes than in big field holdem events, but even your wins usually don't pay more than 10-20x the buy-in. It's possible in big holdem events to make 100x+ the buy-in with a final table finish. For this reason, I don't think it is possible to have a ROI of 200-300% (or more) that is supposedly attained by elite NLHE players. I'd guess something in the 100-150% range is the best anyone can do, anything above 50% is very good, and anything positive is OK. ITM% depends on the site. 24h pays ~16%, Planet a bit less (usually 10-15%) and PokerRoom is often under 10% (they pay 10 players for any field between 50-200 entrants). I think a good player can cash twice as often as an average player, particularly in rebuy events where many players (sometimes half the field) do not use their rebuy(s). As always, ROI is more important than ITM.

As far as the 24h SNGs, the turbo structure makes them enough of a crapshoot that I speculate 25-30% ROI is going to be about as good as anyone could sustain, with 15-20% very decent. With 33% of the field paid, I'd guess 40-45% would be a very good ITM. I think PokerRoom also has draw SNGs, but I've never played them. I know PokerRoom uses 5 player tables, rather than 6, for draw; Planet uses 8 player tables which is part of the reason why that site tends to have the tightest and most passive draw games online.

This is totally off the top of my head and not based on calculations, but I'd guess you could take bankroll guidelines and cut them in half for draw.

Oh, and what cards are you stripping out of the deck in Brazil to leave a 32 card deck?

[mpanzer]

Thanks Tom for your answer here and the PM you sent me.

Here in Brazil we play with a 32-deck, we strip 2-6, Ace plays as the big card but is used also in straights and straight flushes before the seven, that is A789T is the lower straight. We usually play four-handed, with the dealer as the SB and the BB at his left. UTG can double the BB at anytime before he looks at his cards. If he doubles, the next guy can double again, and so on. BUT, and this is an huge but, the BB or the last to double if there is one, becomes the last to act! It is something like buying position, isn't it?

As long as there are fewer cards, the ranking of the hands is slightly different. From top to bottom it should be:
Straight Flush
Flush
Four of a kind
Full House
Straight
Three of a kind
Two Pairs
Pair
High Card

Usually Flush and Four of a Kind are twisted just because their odds are almost the same and quads look better than flushes. We always discuss this before starting playing...

Anyway, from the 201,376 possible hands, 107,520 are pairs, and only 53,040 are nothing, but a pair wins in the sake of it looks bigger.

The actual number of hands is:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 32 cards
16 Straight flush
208 flush
224 four of a kind
1.344 full house
4.080 Straight
10.752 three of a kind
24.192 two pairs
53.040 high card
107.520 pair
201.376 total hands
</pre><hr />
If a fifth element wants to play we usually shift the blinds to the left of the dealer and the dealer doesn't take part in that hand, an so on. OR, and this an huge or, we add the 6 to the deck. A 36-card deck, which now makes the quads stronger than the flushes AND, and this is an huge and, the trips bigger than the straights. It is easy, isn't it?

Usually, when someone makes a quad we make a round of dealers-choice, with games ressemblig HE, Omaha, Stud, Indian, Hi-Lo, or something the guy just invented. And by the end of the night, or start of the morning, if we are four-handed someone will suggest to strip the 7 also, just to get more action!

It is fun, and it is just for fun. Usually the winner buys the food/beverage for the next time.

I am sure with the HE bubble and Internet and Cable TV, more and more Brazilians are playing HE and using the full deck on their home games. Mine broke a few years ago.

Best regards,
Márcio

[monroe]

Usually, a 32-card deck is made by removing all cards 2-6. A flush is ranked higher than a full house. A789T should make a straight as well as AKQJT, but Google says that sometimes A789T is considered Ace-high.

To mpanzer: I'm from Brazil also, although I've lived my entire life in New England. Recently, a family friend from Belo Horizonte came to visit. The two of us played heads up draw for 4 1/2 hours one afternoon. We used a 52-card deck, but the structure was new to me. We each put an ante of 1, and there was no further betting until after the draw! Then, betting was as normal with increments of either 1 or 2. So it was like a 1 ante, 1-2 spread limit game with only one round of betting. This seemed strange at the time, but the Draw Poker Wiki makes mention of this variation, so it's apparently not unheard of. This woman is in her 50's for whatever that's worth.

Sorry I can't add anything to the discussion on variance, etc. But listen to Tom Bayes, he plays a lot of draw.

Edit: Marcio got his post in before mine...

[mpanzer]

monroe,
I've played with antes also, we call the ante ´pingo´ and everybody has to ante before receiving cards, like you described. And there is a third way were everybody should ante the SB value but have to complete the BB value to draw cards or have to muck.
How did your friend manage the different ranking of the hands with a full deck? At the start I made a lot of self-bad-beats...

[monroe]

About the third way you describe: So, everybody antes 1, but the BB puts in 2. In order to draw you must put in another chip. Can you raise to 3 or 4 predraw or not? In the game I played, the action went: ante, deal cards, draw cards, bet, showdown.

As for the hand rankings, we never had a situation of big hand over big hand and a pair always beat high card without question. I think the "52-card deck with only one betting round" structure was one she had played many times before.

[mpanzer]

No monroe, you can not raise in that case. You either call the BB, or the doubled BBs that can be out there, or you fold/muck. Weird, isn't it?
Bloody hell, how many weird poker variants are out there in this sick world? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I mean, not only the cards/decks variants, but also the betting structures.