SnG bubble w/ A9o

[StatsProf857]

Can people check my work/reasoning here?

8 person SnG, 24000 chips on the table, 4 people left
1st gets $40, 2nd gets $25, 3rd gets $15
Blinds are 600/1200 with a 200 ante
Blinds go up to 800/1600 with a 300 ante in 11 minutes (about 8 hands).

UTG Villain (4400) more or less playing the Harrington system
Button Veteran (11000) tight, solid player
SB NewGuest (4000) probably plays way too tight
BB Hero (4600) Harrington-esque image

Antes are paid and blinds are posted.
UTG shoves to 4200 total.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB Hero sees A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
-------------
UTG Villain 0+3000
Button Veteran 10800
SB NewGuest 3400
BB Hero 3200
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Pot contains 800+600+2x1200 = 3800

If I call, the loser's walking away empty-handed. I'm thinking that the pot odds (3800+3000)/3000 = 2.2666:1 should take a back seat to bubble considerations. If I fold, here is how things'll stack up after the antes are collected and the blinds are posted for the next hand:

UTG Veteran 10600
Button NewGuest 3200
SB Hero 2400+600
BB Villain 6000+1200
-------------
Pot contains 800

Even if I lose my small blind here, I have table position on NewGuest. He has to deal with his big blind first. Maybe it'll make him try something foolish. It's essentially a waiting game to see who blinks first, and whether or not he gets away with it. If NewGuest wins a hand before I do, I'm pretty much toast.

With the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I have the first chance to try something silly. That night, I called and lost. In retrospect, especially given UTG's sane, tight range, I think I should fold here. Any thoughts?

StatsProf857

[BHokie1]

I could push just about anything if I'm UTG here and nobody is calling with A9o.

That's not the question you asked, the real question is what is a UTG's range?

I checked this in SNGPT (see FAQs if you don't know what that is)and he needs to be pushing 23%+ for this to be +$EV to call (if I got the stacks correct).

If you think it's close and the big stack is playing tight I'd rather wait for an open push.