Basic flop question

[DeadLily]

I feel like this is a dumb question, but I am a beginner after all, so I'll fire away. Say I've raised with a solid hand like, say AQ and I'm playing a table of really loose players who are calling with crap like K4, and the flop comes up all garbage like 7 9 3. Should I get away from this on the likely chance that someone's paired up on the flop, or should I bet into it?

[SheridanCat]

Very hard to say. Limit or no-limit? Relevant stack sizes, if no-limit? Are these the types of players who will call you all the way down with any part of the board?

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like this is a dumb question, but I am a beginner after all, so I'll fire away. Say I've raised with a solid hand like, say AQ and I'm playing a table of really loose players who are calling with crap like K4, and the flop comes up all garbage like 7 9 3. Should I get away from this on the likely chance that someone's paired up on the flop, or should I bet into it?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a dumb question. It's one of the harder things for new players to get good at.

I actually tried to write a simple meaningful answer for you and found that it was becoming a book. Lol

I think that I'm simply going to give you the following simple advice with the further suggestion that you check out Ed Miller's & David Sklansky's book Small Stakes Holdem. They said it better than I would have anyway.

If you miss the flop with AQ in a multiway pot, do not put any more money into the pot unless your odds of winning either by folding everyone else out or making the best hand by spiking an A, Q, or some backdoor draw are exceeded by the odds the pot is laying you.

I know that this is a little oversimplified, but with a hand like AQ or AK, you won't go to far wrong with this advice.

As I said at the beginning, knowing how to play overcards is one of the hardest things to learn about playing holdem. It will take a while before you get the hang of it.

GL

[DeadLily]

Sorry for missing details. No-limit, everyone's stacks roughly the max +/-25%. My gut tells me that betting into it would look too much like a bluff, if I've been playing mostly tight, so I'd probably get called. My other instinct tells me that it's just a flat-out missed flop and I shouldn't bother with it.

But on a purely odds-based level, what are the chances that any single loose player would have paired up 3 random rags?

[Dov]

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But on a purely odds-based level, what are the chances that any single loose player would have paired up 3 random rags?

[/ QUOTE ]

Giving your opponents random hands, everyone has the same probability of flopping a pair assuming unpaired hole cards. Since we each have 6 cards that pair our hole cards, the probability of flopping a at least a pair is given by:

We know 5 cards so there are 47 cards remaining. Since 9 cards pair the board, 38 cards do not. Since your opponent has 2 cards, the probability that he missed the board is (38/47)*(37/46) = 0.65 or 65%. That means that there is a 100 - 65 = 35% chance that he paired up.

In the case of 3 opponents,

(38/47) * (37/46) * (36/45) * (35/44) * (34/43) * (33/42) = 0.26 = 26% chance that no one flopped a pair. That means that there is a 100 - 26 = 74% chance that someone has a pair.

Hope that helps.

[niugnep]

All the answers so far have been very good... but there are some facts that I feel haven't been addressed yet.

Is your AQ suited? Does the board give you a backdoor flush draw? Or even a 1 card flush draw? If so, then your hand is slightly stronger and your total number of outs are better, therefore giving you better PE.

Also, what position are you with AQ? That, for me, would be a HUGE factor in whether I try to steal the pot there or just check/fold.

Another thing is, and this is purely a personal opinion and I'm not sure it holds entirely true in a uNL game where players probably aren't as aware as they should be... but generally if someone raised preflop, it represents something that would have missed the flop you described unless they had an overpair... so if you raised preflop with AQ and then the flop came out all rags and then you bet into from a later position, there'd only be two options in my mind... 1. You're bluffing or 2. you have an overpair.

This should be something you're aware of if you are going to try to steal this pot post flop.

Anyway... that's my .02. I hope it helps.

[zboy]

[ QUOTE ]
My gut tells me that betting into it would look too much like a bluff, if I've been playing mostly tight, so I'd probably get called. My other instinct tells me that it's just a flat-out missed flop and I shouldn't bother with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a bluff, you have A-high. You should usually not bother with it. But, you have still neglected to provide important details. What position are you in. How many people called to see the flop? Those two questions will greatly affect how you proceed.

Generally, check fold here if many people called your preflop bet and you didn't hit. You do want to c-bet often, but the best situations for that are when you are head's up on flop, and a dry flop with a single high card. Preferably you are in position. This isn't the only time to c-bet, but the closer you are to this situation, the better.

If, say, you raised preflop in early or middle position and are called by 3 loose players, and you miss the pot, just check fold it. Your only other play besides folding here is the c-bet the flop, but you have to have a reasonable belief that you can get the other players to fold. You probably aren't getting that. Check, hope others check behind and the turn is a Q or A (preferably a Q). Otherwise, check/fold.