AKs, all streets.

SABR42 · #1 03-23-2007, 07:01 AM

MP3 is a 22/11 multi-tabler. I saw him limp AQ UTG one hand, which seemed pretty weird, but otherwise he hasn't been out of line.

SB is new, no reads.

My stack is only 90% because I didn't get to re-buy from the last hand yet, grrrrr.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($113.50)
Hero ($90.50)
MP3 ($175.80)
CO ($95.30)
Button ($45.40)
SB ($189.35)
BB ($100)
UTG ($88.50)
UTG+1 ($130.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.5, MP3 calls $4.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $14, 1 fold, UTG folds, Hero calls $9.50, MP3 calls $9.50.

Flop: ($44) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: ($44) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, MP3 folds, SB calls $30.

River: ($104) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $46.5 (All-In), SB calls $46.50.

Final Pot: $197

Pre-flop, my first instincts are to 4-bet shove, but I'm primarely a 6-max player. Reminding myself that in full ring people 3-bet light a lot less, I just call. MP3's call closing the action probably means he has a pocket pair most of the time.

On the flop I decided to check, as I didn't know whether SB was trapping with a monster (AA/QQ/AQ) or just checking because he was afraid of the ace (KK/JJ). I decided to wait for the turn, where hopefully I'd have a better idea of what he has.

After he checks turn again, I'm pretty sure SB doesn't have a monster, so I bet to protect against another spade falling. I think I'm folding if MP3 pushes, although I'd hate it. MP3 folded, but SB called, which was good. I think his most likely hands are KK with a spade or JJ with a spade.

After his river check, it's basically impossible for me to not have the best hand, so I stick it in.

davekngs · #2 03-23-2007, 07:43 AM

looks ok to me. I'm confused as to what the SB has. all I can think you are beating is KK or you could be splitting here. I think you should consider checking behind river there really isn't much that can call that doesn't beat you SB may have slow played the [censored] out of QQ

Panthro · #3 03-23-2007, 07:46 AM

fine. Like the flop checky. Smells more like KK w/ a spade than AQ/QQ anyhow.

And what brings you to the wonderful world of FR nittyness anyhoo??

Edit: oh, and limping UTG w/ AQ is pretty common at FR.

raistlinx · #4 03-23-2007, 07:55 AM

I don't mind a fold pre-flop because of the rake. This guy is not 3-betting with anything that you are better than a coin-flip with and with the rake that means you will lose.

I would never fold it in a tournament but in a cash game I'm just not sure the math justifies a call here. if he does have KK-JJ spiking an A will kill your action, you both lose to the rake if he has AK (if you don't get pushed off the pot on the flop when you both miss) and you will get killed when you hit a K and he has AA (or KK) or the few times you hit an A and he has AA.

Before the rest of you jump at me about this being a bad fold, please include some math in your post.

SABR42 · #5 03-23-2007, 08:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And what brings you to the wonderful world of FR nittyness anyhoo??

[/ QUOTE ]
Need to clear lots of FPP in a short period of time (to maintain a VIP status), and I can play more tables at FR.

SABR42 · #6 03-23-2007, 08:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
looks ok to me. I'm confused as to what the SB has. all I can think you are beating is KK or you could be splitting here. I think you should consider checking behind river there really isn't much that can call that doesn't beat you SB may have slow played the [censored] out of QQ

[/ QUOTE ]
SB checking QQ on the river would be criminal, given pot size and how much I have left.

I realize that not much can call me, but since he will almost never have me beat, I'm freerolling. If he makes a hero call with KK some of the time, I profit.

FattyMcGee · #7 03-23-2007, 08:15 AM

I think you have to at least call preflop with A/K since you already have 1/3 or so of the re-raiser's bet in there. This alone gives you the correct odds to play, plus the guy who's last to act will likely call and improve your odds (then again, he could have AA/KK and re-raise here but I think this chance is worth taking). An ace will kill action against QQ/KK but you will likely be able to get some money. And a diamond draw will hit occasionally, which will allow you to pressure the opponent to fold (much of the time) when you only have 50% or so of the equity. Finally, being in position should give you an advantage against another A/K. Against a reasonably draw heavy board like this one and two players, I would bet the flop. I don't want someone to hit their spade draw or have J/10 and hit. Checking is also fine though - but with two people I lean very slightly toward a flop bet. Turn is fine, but on the river I might check it down or, probably more likely, fire a smaller bet that can get paid off with something other than A/K, flush or full house. I lean toward a river bet b/c most opponents will bet a flush or full house on the river, but I would want to know more about this player to make my decision.

SABR42 · #8 03-23-2007, 08:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just not sure the math justifies a call here. if he does have KK-JJ spiking an A will kill your action, you both lose to the rake if he has AK (if you don't get pushed off the pot on the flop when you both miss) and you will get killed when you hit a K and he has AA (or KK) or the few times you hit an A and he has AA.

Before the rest of you jump at me about this being a bad fold, please include some math in your post.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't have the exact math, but I think pre-flop is a call, because you underestimate the times we flop an ace and still extract a decent amount of value from KK/QQ.

I'm checking the flop almost always in this situation, regardless of whether I flop a pair or not. Checking when an ace (or king) flops can be deceptive and get us a call from an underpair later on. Being suited also makes a small difference here.

raistlinx · #9 03-23-2007, 08:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just not sure the math justifies a call here. if he does have KK-JJ spiking an A will kill your action, you both lose to the rake if he has AK (if you don't get pushed off the pot on the flop when you both miss) and you will get killed when you hit a K and he has AA (or KK) or the few times you hit an A and he has AA.

Before the rest of you jump at me about this being a bad fold, please include some math in your post.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't have the exact math, but I think pre-flop is a call, because you underestimate the times we flop an ace and still extract a decent amount of value from KK/QQ.

I'm checking the flop almost always in this situation, regardless of whether I flop a pair or not. Checking when an ace (or king) flops can be deceptive and get us a call from an underpair later on. Being suited also makes a small difference here.

[/ QUOTE ]
EV doesn't care what we 'think'...

Put it this way, if he is good he can stack us (or at least get a good chunk of our stack) if an A hits and he has AA, he can also get a good chunk of our stack if a K hits and he has AA/KK. But what hands do we get a good chunk of his stack with? Being out of position he is going to cbet a flop just about 100% of the time meaning we will fold our AK when we both miss. Even when he has QQ/JJ we are less than a 50% favorite to win but then we have to pay 5% in rake on top of that! That all works out to less than 40% equity of this pot... mathmatically this is a losing play.

Unless you hope he will stack off with QQ/JJ when you hit an A or K I don't see how you can call here and make money. Again if someone can show me some math that says differently I'm open to it. I'm also a little more cool with calling because it is suited here, but I'm still not sure that gives us enough to call in a cash game.

RocketPiquette · #10 03-23-2007, 11:19 AM

I find this very thoughtfull, as I hate playing AK when I am not the agressor. You show me why I thought this way now!