Pair of 2's, what am I missing here?

[pdxjayhawk]

I'm a long time limit player. About a year ago I started playing $10 SNG's and have a very good ROI. The SNG format just seems to work very well with my (probably) overly tight but aggressive style.

I've recently started playing some MTT's, after reading Harrington's books.

I have a question about small pocket pairs that I thought many here can answer.

The other day, we've just moved in to the money in a $15 buy-in MTT with about 700 players. Blinds are 600/1200 with antes of $50. I've dwindled down to 6000 after a bad beat. There are about 70 people left. Pick up 99 UTG and figure there's never a better time so I shove it. Guy with about 18,000 smooth calls (had AK hearts). Villian comes over the top risking half his stack with 22. He spikes a two and takes down a monster. I'm gone, AK is crippled but not out.

Villian says, "I had to."

My question is why? He was getting basically 3-1 to get in to a race with a hand that is probably only a 17% chance to win if either one of the two already in has a pocket pair. The only way the hand is better than 3-1 to win is if BOTH people in have Ax.

I find myself folding things like 10-10 and JJ in situations with a couple of all-ins or big raises in front, because I've never thought those hands did well in 3 way races.

I'm asking because this is the kind of move I often see from fairly large stacks late in MTT's. It seems like they can't wait to call off 1/4 or 1/3 of their stacks with tiny pocket pairs when someone with an M of around 10 shoves in front of them.

So help me with the math here. Does it make sense to loosen up here and accept more coin flips for the chance to go deeper in the money?

[betgo]

There are a lot of fish in MTTs who will call 2 allins with marginal hands. Some people don't understand the gap principle.

Making these loose calls is bad in MTTs but sometimes worse in SNGs where survival is important.

I just got knocked out of an MTT close to the bubble today pushing UTG for 10xBB with AKo. Got two callers. First had 55 and second had AKo.

[wheatrich]

It's not even the gap principle on this hand. 22 man is a fish. People risk half or their entire stack (even when it's completely unwarranted) on hands like 22 or QJo all the time.

[betgo]

I don't know if I should respond again to this thread. However, when villain said he had to call two allins with 22, what he meant was he couldn't bring himself to fold any pp preflop under any circumstances.

For some reason fish love to call early position short stack pushes for 7-12xBB with KJ-K9. That kind of play is not disasterous, but usually somewhat EV-.

There are a lot of calling stations who don't like to fold a playable hand and don't understand odds.

You remember it most when they bust you out, but in the long run of course you like to have them playing.

[mornelth]

I think you mis-read the post.

Hero pushes, villain#1 with 3x Hero's stack smooth-calls, villain#2 with 22 comes over the top.

If V#2 has a read on V#1 and thinks there's a good chance he'll fold rather than risk his whole stack - then it's a great move - he has to figure that he'll be slightly ahead of the Hero's desperate push at least half the time and if V#1 folds there will be a ton of dead money in the pot.

Now the question whether or not he HAS TO do it is debatable...

[NHFunkii]

he just sucks.

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]

I find myself folding things like 10-10 and JJ in situations with a couple of all-ins or big raises in front, because I've never thought those hands did well in 3 way races.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are not good in a 3-way - unless both of your opponents have big aces -

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.3910 % 44.27% 00.12% { TT }
Hand 2: 21.2031 % 20.56% 00.64% { AQs, AQo }
Hand 3: 34.4059 % 33.76% 00.64% { AKs, AKo }

The question is, then, can you raise or push and guarantee or almost guarantee that you will end up heads-up with only 1 player (original all-in). Move with the 2's would be a lot better if V#1 had a lot more chips and had raised to isolate the Hero.