-EV w/Most Pot equity?

[DWarrior]

This will actually be a very complex calculation.

You have to calculate each pot (main, 2 sides) individually.

The second sidepot of CL vs you will be 70k.

Hand 0: 63.718% 61.55% 02.17% 4236784404 149223576.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 36.282% 34.11% 02.17% 2348230524 149223576.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

For 140,000
Equity: 89,205.2

Note that 34.11% of the time you will lose to CL and that means you no longer have dibs for the remainder of the pots. 2.17% of the time you will be splitting the 140k second sidepot and then moving on to the other sidepot and main pot and battling the shorties. 61.55% of the time you will win the 140k and then go up vs the shorties for side and main.

If you assumed their ranges were independent of one another, and that battling for each pot was independent of one another, this calculation would be relatively easy.

However, when you win against CL, your odds of beating shorties go up, which severely complicates the problem.

We can go in reverse order (from main up):

(using your numbers, they don’t add up to 1)
30k shortie: 30% 22.61% 128,469 16,358
35k shortie: 30% 22.58% 128,376 16,212
CL: 30% 22.56% 128,417 15,852
You: AK 32.25% 181,608 26,159

32.25% of the time you scoop 275k
22.56% of the time CL wins and thus scoops, you lose 105k
22.58% of the time 35k shortie wins main+side1, so you’re guaranteed to lose 35k. You still have equity in the 140k sidepot2, but I cannot calculate it.
22.61% of the time 30k shortie wins main, so you’re guaranteed to lose 30k. You still have equity in both sidepots, but I cannot calculate it.

All I can say is your equity is definitely greater than 88687.5.

The problem with AK though is that sometimes it becomes a –EV hand when enough villains take enough of your outs.

Example:
AKo vs TT = ~coinflip
AKo vs AKo vs TT = TT 65.5% fav

I'm still almost positive that AKo is a +EV call in that spot (assuming their ranges are all 30%, which is extremely unrealistic)