Tough spot, Sunday Million

[TreMomey]

I agree this is an easy call if I have an avg stack or less however with my stack if i fold im still top 5 in chips.... I'm basically calling off my entire stack with A high

Its difficult bc I don't know much about BB.. his range could be very tight like QQ, KK and AA or it could be like 88-AA, AK-A10.

[hard2tel]

[ QUOTE ]
Man, that's so tough. BB's range has to be AQs+, JJ+. Maybe TT. OK, if this were a $109, then I'm instacalling. I think in the Million with your stack, I'd probably fold. Top 10 stacks with 80 left in the Million don't come round very often. That's pretty gay, because calling is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea good point. Unless BB is a 100r regular or whatever we should tighten his range a bit more. AQ+ and TT+ probably.

...a lot closer than i thought.

[Easy17]

not an easy fold but pretty clear fold for me given stack size.

[TreMomey]

So the consensus seems to be that this spot is +EV for me however due to stack size a fold is the best choice in this spot?

[registrar]

It's definitely +cEV. BB looks down at AQs or TT, what's he going to do in this spot?

[DVO]

1) BB's range has to include AQ here, and maybe AJ. Your raise from the button doesn't look strong, BB knows that.

2) You are getting 1.4 to 1 odds, and surely your equity is greater than 41%.

3) The average stack at the final table will be 7 million. Winning this pot will bring you to over 3.5MM. You've still got a long ways to go, mister...assuming your goal is to go really deep here, call.

I think factors 1-3 outweigh the bullying factor implied in you folding and keeping a healthy stack.

[rppkoz]

[ QUOTE ]
So the consensus seems to be that this spot is +EV for me however due to stack size a fold is the best choice in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a huge hand in BSB play. This is a call.

[earlytimes1]

I don't play the Million, but this looks like a call:

1. you're getting 1.5-to-1.
2. vs a BB range of JJ+, AKs, AKo, you have about 40% equity. vs a range of 99+, AQ+, you have almost 50%
3. you made a standard steal-raise and there's no way BB gives you credit for being this strong; as others have said, this is a textbook iso-push spot.

the call is +EV. if you think you're one of the better players at your table and you can find better spots to keep accumulating chips, then you could arguing for folding, but I'd have to be very confident in myself to pass up this much equity this late in the tourney.

[elstunar]

I don't see how i fold this, this is above my limit in terms of buy-in, but I don't think this is necessarily a spot where $EV greatly differs from cEV, I mean, you're a substantial chip leader at this point if you win this pot, you could have him dominated, it's more likely than not that if he has a pair its less than KK+, this is definitely a tough spot, but I feel like a call is right.

[mic_check12]

lol at the fold KK guy. I turbo call this, you win and its final table time baby