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#11
03-21-2007, 12:40 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ flops A and nut flush draw in big pot
I think it's pretty close, actually. There's still 8 combinations of AK left, and you're close to even money against those. There's only six possible sets out there, although I would discount 22 because he might fold it to a raise and a reraise preflop.
We're getting 1.7 to 1 on a shove, so we only need about 37% equity, which is pretty close to what we have against his range, if it will be AK more often than a set. Once you add anything other than the hands that have us dominated I think it becomes a clear call. 
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#12
03-21-2007, 12:41 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ flops A and nut flush draw in big pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Villain cold calls 2 a 3 bet with 22. LOLz. If he's cold calling 2 bets with 22 he can have other hands than 22,99,AK. [/ QUOTE ] its only one real bet and its obvious i have a decent hand I would often call here with 22 and so would he [/ QUOTE ] Okay then I have 2 questions. Why did you raise preflop (which I'm indifferent about.) Why didn't you raise more though? If he's a consistent winner, along with you how does he imagine he'd stack you if he hits a set? You literally have one of the best flops possible with your hand, and are hesitant to get it in since you have such a specific read.
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#13
03-21-2007, 01:16 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ flops A and nut flush draw in big pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Villain cold calls 2 a 3 bet with 22. LOLz. If he's cold calling 2 bets with 22 he can have other hands than 22,99,AK. [/ QUOTE ] its only one real bet and its obvious i have a decent hand I would often call here with 22 and so would he [/ QUOTE ] Okay then I have 2 questions. Why did you raise preflop (which I'm indifferent about.) Why didn't you raise more though? If he's a consistent winner, along with you how does he imagine he'd stack you if he hits a set? You literally have one of the best flops possible with your hand, and are hesitant to get it in since you have such a specific read. [/ QUOTE ] Because UTG's minraise means absolutely nothing to me and may as well be a limp because he is worse than bad. So i effectly discounted it as a rasie at all and made it 3$ which is 0.50 larger than what I would usually make it ( I don't want to start betting $4.5 and playing a bloated pot OOP with an ok hand The reason I bet 2/3 on the flop is because as soon as I pot it I'm only getting action off AK or better a lot of the time and my hand is extremely strong. However as soon as this particular villan comes over the top that strong I am as close to certain as you can ever be that he has 1 pair beat and the only hands he would call with PF in that spot that fit that board are 22,99,AK Trust me I would never usually consider folding this except to 3 or 4 opponents that I play with every day. my question was more math related
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#14
03-21-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ flops A and nut flush draw in big pot
I love some of the analysis...I push...I fold...I don't agree with your range....
Giant Buddha got it right.... 8 AK combo's and we're 46 vs. 54 on those 6 sets (3 22s and 3 99s) we're 30 vs. 70 on those 8/14 X .46 6/14 X .30 =39% Let's say 40% for ease of calculation 12 (p-flop) +8 (our bet) + 47 (villain's stack to cover us) 39 (for us to see it through)= pot of 106 we have to put in 39 more on a 106 pot = about 37% If this range is dead on...it's pretty much a toss-up. What did Dirty Harry say?? "Do you feel lucky?"
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#15
03-21-2007, 02:30 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ flops A and nut flush draw in big pot
[ QUOTE ]
I love some of the analysis...I push...I fold...I don't agree with your range.... Giant Buddha got it right.... 8 AK combo's and we're 46 vs. 54 on those 6 sets (3 22s and 3 99s) we're 30 vs. 70 on those 8/14 X .46 6/14 X .30 =39% Let's say 40% for ease of calculation 12 (p-flop) +8 (our bet) + 47 (villain's stack to cover us) 39 (for us to see it through)= pot of 106 we have to put in 39 more on a 106 pot = about 37% If this range is dead on...it's pretty much a toss-up. What did Dirty Harry say?? "Do you feel lucky?" [/ QUOTE ] See my analysis above. Instead of doing the calculation by hand I stoved it.
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#16
03-21-2007, 02:52 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ flops A and nut flush draw in big pot
You cant fold this hand with top pair good kicker and nut flush draw. I would definitely get my money in the middle in this spot as you are favored over a wide range of hands. Anyone advocating a fold here is a huge nit and probably are not able to build a big stack.
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