Annoying turn

Guy McSucker · #1 03-21-2007, 12:16 PM

FT 5/10.

I raise 88 UTG.

A relative unknown with 50/10 preflop stats and a subzero aggression factor calls. You could say he was loose-passive. The BB who is a 30/20 overaggressive type calls too.

Flop: 9 7 4 two diamonds. BB checks, I bet, Mr Loose Passive calls, BB folds.

Turn: another 7. I bet, he raises.

He's never raised the turn before.

Look him up or do the decent thing?

Guy.

jstill · #2 03-21-2007, 12:21 PM

ehhh thats a pretty annoying one actually.... how many hands is this over and what position did he cold call in (not sure how much that would change it for me)?

I honestly think I end up looking him up since hes basically an unknown and hands like JT fds and other stupid hands (weak pairs) freeshowdown this turn card too much to bet fold?

would anyone have any question about bet calling down if the board was 754dd 7 instead or something like that?

Guy McSucker · #3 03-21-2007, 12:35 PM

He was in the CO.

I've only been playing with him for 50 hands or so but all I can say is he like to call and he does not like to bet or raise. He's had some good hands and good draws and been checking and calling.

Guy.

MacGuyV · #4 03-21-2007, 01:30 PM

To be good here he has to be fsd raising a worse hand or floating w/ a flopped draw...
I just think 7x, 9x (seems like the type of donk that could play AA like this too) are so much more likely that it's a routine muck.

colgin · #5 03-21-2007, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He was in the CO.

I've only been playing with him for 50 hands or so but all I can say is he like to call and he does not like to bet or raise. He's had some good hands and good draws and been checking and calling.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even though it has been only 50hands it sounds as if you have a pretty solid read. And that read is clearly telling you to "Fold.

Veron · #6 03-21-2007, 02:01 PM

Yeah I say you have to fold here. Your sample size small but this guy is like 50/10/0 and he raises the turn on a board where you only beat a bluff or something fancy you think he's not capable of raising.

I would fold instantly.

danzasmack · #7 03-21-2007, 02:04 PM

This is either a stone cold bluff or the stone cold nuts.

Call and see the nuts or fold to the bluff. Honestly this is 50/50 with me.

aargh57 · #8 03-21-2007, 02:05 PM

I'm thinking that you should look him up. With him playing that many hands a 0.X AF may not actually be that passive. I used to have it in my favorites but there was a thread called "2 common pt misunderstandings" or something like that and a low AF from a guy that plays tons of hands wasn't necessarily that low. Anyway, I guess I would want a better read than just AF to fold here. Is this spewing? You've got 7 BB's right now if I count right and you're going to have to spend 2 more than likely to win 8. So he's got to be FOS at least 25% of the time so it kind of sounds like I'm spewing if I do this.

Veron · #9 03-21-2007, 02:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He was in the CO.

I've only been playing with him for 50 hands or so but all I can say is he like to call and he does not like to bet or raise. He's had some good hands and good draws and been checking and calling.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is easily enough for me to fold the hand. Calling down and hoping villain is bluffing is just -EV here. I'm really surprised that many posters advocate calling down.

sethypooh21 · #10 03-21-2007, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking that you should look him up. With him playing that many hands a 0.X AF may not actually be that passive. I used to have it in my favorites but there was a thread called "2 common pt misunderstandings" or something like that and a low AF from a guy that plays tons of hands wasn't necessarily that low. Anyway, I guess I would want a better read than just AF to fold here. Is this spewing? You've got 7 BB's right now if I count right and you're going to have to spend 2 more than likely to win 8. So he's got to be FOS at least 25% of the time so it kind of sounds like I'm spewing if I do this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I remember that thread as well. Basically, because of the way PT calculates AF, a guy who is loose PF and makes a lot of bad calls (instead of folding) can still raise a fair amount of the time and have a low AF. That said, given the description of his AF as microscopic (as opposed to merely low) in this hand, fold. I would be shocked if this guy had less than trips more than 20% of the time here, and a good portion of the rest of the time he has TT+.