regularly busted late in mtt

[clint_silver]

not playing that long ( a few months). read a few books, picked up a few tips here and there, lost a bit on cash tables early on now just stick to a few STTs while playing an MTT on the side and about break even. Playing either Paddypower new client on ipoker network(I think) or party.. last 2 weeks played the 20k on paddys about 5 times. 3 times Ive got to top 50 of about 1000 players, got there with decent stacks. Busted in 40th, 15th and last night 20th. So what am I doint wrong? e.g. Ive 110k (about 10th pos overall) blinds were up to 3000/6000, folded round to me in SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I raise to 12k, BB (90k)calls, flop comes 2,8,10 rainbow. Im thinking to steal here so raise 30k, BB waits and then goes all in. Now Im thinking that was the most obvious steal ever and wtf did I do it for smacked the forehead etc. So couple of questions is everything an all in at that stage? Should it have been a call and leave myself behind to an A high or wait with my shortened stack for a better hand? A check? Of course I folded and never recovered from that and went out shortly after but was sick at the way I played that hand as Id worked so hard over the previous 4 hours to get to there.
Is there a different mentality to adopt at that stage as Im in the money anyway? (top 100 get paid)

[Easy17]

you may be becoming predictable

are you mixing up your play enough?

in the case provided, had you been C-Betting almost every flop previously? were you c bets always almost pot sized

regardless, BB might have woken up with AA.

[jonnyd]

hands that are folding are also folding for like 15-18k.

ive found that in mid-late stages its about picking up a lot of small pots and getting out if i run into any real resistance

since this was battle of the blinds its a bit different, but i still dont like the potsized bet on the flop there.. too much of your stack if you're not calling his shove.

[Cablelessray]

you can't just play by the books later in a tourney. read a bunch of 2p2, and you'll catch on if you truly want to. i think playing by the book can only get you to top 10% of the field. to be possitive equity against those players you need to, like easy17 said, become less predictable

[4CardStraight]

I shove preflop.

KQs is a hand that has decent equity when it sees all five cards. You have solid fold equity here, a push is a pretty big bet on top of the blinds, and he is likely to fold way too often. (he will likely fold hands like A8o that he should really call with)

Doing the math, lets assume we have a guy who will call with top 10% hands:
90% of the time we win 9k
10% of the we are a 42/58 dog with 189k in the pot (-11k exp)

As you can see, when you net this out, shoving here if called 10% of the time you will on net be +EV to the tune of about 8k. Amazingly enough, no matter what his calling range is here, you are +EV to shove. (if he only calls you three percent of the time, you are a major dog when called, but 97% of the time he wont have a hand that good)

I think shoving is better than raising, as KQ really does want to see all five cards. Your board is a great example. KQ is highly likely to either A flop a pair, or B flop unders and have 25% to hit a pair in the next two cards.

Now.. This is clearly a +chip EV push, again no matter what his calling range is. The question then is is it a +$$ push. I would possibly fold the KQ if I was guaranteed to move up a significant pay grade just by folding (like theres short stacks on other tables that will bust and the money is huge), but again the reality is that even if we are on the bubble or ITM, the bb will only be that much more tight, making our push even that much more +EV.

almost in all cases this is just an instant push.

If you are regularly busting late in MTT's. I HIGHLY RECOMMEND YOU START LOOKING AT OPEN PUSHING MORE!

Get Mathematics of Poker, study the Jam or Fold game table.

[jonnyd]

no way hero and bb are way too deep to be open shoving this hand.

[4CardStraight]

we are the bigger stack and we have under 20BB.

Have you ever bought into a cash game with 20BB? Its a push or fold game. Our M is 12 and his is 10. A 3x raise if called puts 36k into the pot and our opponent does not even have two pot sized bets.

I dont think this stack size allows for post flop play. Raising without shoving means we are playing a raised pot, out of position, without three streets of stacks. You will also note, that we certainly should not raise and then fold to a shove (pot odds dictate a call given even extremely tight reraise ranges from the bb), so then we are only going to the felt if HE chooses to, and also if we just get a call, if we DO flop a pair like a Q or a K, how do we get any more money from villain? So by just raising small, we are limiting the size of the pot we can win, we are forcing ourselves to play poker out of position in a raised pot with a short stack left, and we are giving our opponent all the power. He can choose to see a flop, choose to felt, choose to call after the flop, choose to felt after the flop, he gets all the information. A preflop shove gives him no info to work with.

You can play late game out of position, in raised pots, with only a single bullet left if you want, but me, I would prefer to get it all in while I am WAY LIKELY TO BE AHEAD. preflop folded around to the SB, my KQs is a monster, and I put all my chips in. I think its the right play here.

[jonnyd]

its just that if you do "get it all in" you are not way likely to be ahead.

[Rocco]

Well... It's not easy to say exactly what you're doing wrong. As we always say, post a couple of hands from different tournaments.

On to your hand... Lately, I've really started to think about bet amounts and plan ahead for future bets. I try to put my opponent in difficult situations instead of ending up there myself. By betting out 30k on the flop here, you set the stage and beg for an all-in. That would of course be the best thing to do if you actually had a made hand.

A better way to play the flop would be to check and then raise all-in if he bets out. Another line, which I would take, is to just complete pre-flop. If Villain raises to 18K, you move in and pick up a nice 24K plus antes. But since I don't know anything about Villain, your playing style and the table dynamics, it's hard to say what the best line is. But try to refrain from betting amounts that will get you into trouble.

[johnnyrocket]

your opponent is good, nothing you can do the reraise, you must learn to steal a lot late and pad your stack by taking chances.