A hand where I bet a lot

[rafiki]

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ok you win. Hand great as played. SHIP IT !

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Still low critical thinking. Why did I play it so great?

I'm new to the game. Please go a little gentler on me.

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I'm not being critical. I'm being humble.

Generally in this country, one guy makes a bet, the other guy then mucks his hand in disgust: No Tickey, No Laundry *end jack voice*

[Fianchetto]

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He's not folding his two pair/flush/whatever hand he has,

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What flush do you put him on? He might have KhTh, but that makes a royal flush, and people NEVER make royal flushes! You make a royal flush once every 650,000 hands! I like my chances there!

What two pair hands (or set hands) can you put a miserable dude on here? He flat-called on a hyper-drawy flop. Miserable people LOVE to think in terms of pot odds and [censored], and they absolutely despise giving people proper odds to draw out on their strong hand.

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I agree a flush is unlikely, see my other post in this thread.

Two pair is the most likely hand for him, and as to why he wouldn't raise w/ it on the flop? I don't know. I don't know why miserable players do a lot of the things they do, but if he does have two pair sometimes he will have turned it with AJ, and many players will not raise middle pair on the flop. Or maybe he didn't want to lose his 'customers' in the blinds by raising the flop with a strong hand like a set of 5's.

Nit Alert: 650,000:1 is the odds to get a royal in 5 cards. It's much easier w/ 7 cards like in Hold'em. Around 30,000:1 , I believe.

[gonores]

critical doesn't mean "mean" in this case. Critical = deep, hard thinking about the hand.

If you spent 4 hours every day for the next month focused solely on the question "why did gonores play that hand so great?" you will be much closer to the optimal limit poker player than you are right now (your words, not mine).

[rafiki]

Well before we get into how optimal my poker is or isn't, let's talk about yours, since you're in the hand gonores. What hand range does he have ?

[gonores]

Sorry....threads don't work like that. The originator posts his hand, then other people offer commentary, and THEN the originator posts the results and his thoughts.

I'm not the one being mean. I even told you I liked you. You have to back up your claim before I get to offer my counter-argument.

Plz post good analysis of this hand instead of saying mean things. Kthx.

[rafiki]

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Sorry....threads don't work like that. The originator posts his hand, then other people offer commentary, and THEN the originator posts the results and his thoughts.

I'm not the one being mean. I even told you I liked you. You have to back up your claim before I get to offer my counter-argument.

Plz post good analysis of this hand instead of saying mean things. Kthx.

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ok, I'll do it.

As you mentioned, let's forget preflop. His range of calling hands, despite being CO or something close to that,
are hitting that flop/turn hard. I think since he's an old white guy/nit, he's not smart enough to reraise to isolate
against you. All those concepts are probably lost on him. After the turn raise by him, Let's put his range at:

AJ, A5, AT,AxTh,KT, KhJ, 55, QJ, QxTh, ThTx and probably a few that I'm overlooking.

I've seen more then enough old white guys wait till the turn to raise 2 pair or a set. So with that range, the hands you are actually outdrawing are the 2 pair and set combos. You're behind everything else. In some instances the hands you're behind are ahead AND drawing to a better hand.

As previously mentioned, you're getting 8 to 1 to call his raise. With 89h, I'm maybe willing to consider 4.5 outs. Cut the 9 flush outs in half, and discount the straight draw completely. Call it a crude 10% draw, getting 8 to 1. That's pretty razor thin. But assuming you find it in you to call that, by the time you miss the river, there's 9 big bets if I'm not mistaken. the only justification to betting or checking here is how often you feel he's going
to fold a busted draw. I understand that we only need to make him fold one time in 9 for this to break even (correct me if that's wrong). But based on the turn action, I think that happens 0% of the time, and that 100% of the time we gave him 1 more big bet. However if he folded KhJx in disgust, then great. Nice hand.

[mike l.]

betting the river just doesnt make sense to me. the guy will never fold anything he raised the turn with.

the rest of the hand is fine.

[rafiki]

I gave it some thought, there's a slight flaw in my answer. If I'm willing to account for a pair and a draw as one of villains holdings, then I have to attribute X% to him folding when his draw misses, and he's willing to fold say a J or Q.

We're just dealing in such obscure %'s that I just prefer to give my hand up.

[andyfox]

Do nitty Vegas guys raise the turn when the ace of trump comes and then lay down to a bet on the river when a blank hits? I supppose they do with Kh-Js, but I can't imagine they do with much else with which they raise the turn. Although that may be his most likely hand.

[rafiki]

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Do nitty Vegas guys raise the turn when the ace of trump comes and then lay down to a bet on the river when a blank hits? I supppose they do with Kh-Js, but I can't imagine they do with much else with which they raise the turn. Although that may be his most likely hand.

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Ya I mentioned that one specifically because it's one of the only ones you can make fold I think. Given all the combo of other hands, and the only 3 combos of KhJ, I just don't know if the play is profitable long term.

Be curious to know results