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  #1  
Old 03-19-2007, 08:00 PM
ChoicestHops ChoicestHops is offline
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Default AA on a safe board, villain takes strange line

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $398.80
BTN: $103.60
SB: $325.45
BB: $225.8
UTG: $318.50
Hero (MP): $254.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($16, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, SB calls $10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20

<font color="black">River:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($76, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $100</font>

Villain is a 9/4 after 60 hands or so. Villain calls a flop bet 12.50%. He bets on the turn about 33%, and bets the river 25%. When he bets the turn, I felt like he has a set. I never put a player on a set as this is pretty stupid, but his line didnt make sense to me. He calls with any pair here preflop I think, and I cant see him cold calling OOP with a hand like AQ. But I dont think I can completely rule it out. KK is a possibility here as he is so nitty he may not re-raise it pre.

At the turn, I can either raise his bet about 3.5x, but my plan was to let him hang himself. But when he bets on the river, an overbet, and basically never bets the river, he either is putting on a bluff or he really is strong and wants me to call. I dont know if he sensed weakness from me or not, but I feel like the overbet wants a call. I could see him maybe doing this with a missed flush draw. What do you think and what would you do here?
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  #2  
Old 03-19-2007, 08:07 PM
kitaristi0 kitaristi0 is offline
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Default Re: AA on a safe board, villain takes strange line

Fold the river. He has a set.
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  #3  
Old 03-19-2007, 08:10 PM
ChoicestHops ChoicestHops is offline
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Default Re: AA on a safe board, villain takes strange line

I really think he does, but I rarely if ever can fold because I "put him on a set" you know?
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  #4  
Old 03-19-2007, 08:14 PM
shpanko shpanko is offline
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Default Re: AA on a safe board, villain takes strange line

Well it seems like even if he was semi-bluffing with 45 diamonds or something he got there. What does a 9/4 call with oop? These kind of guys are typically set-miners correct? So it's tough to see what you beat on the river
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  #5  
Old 03-19-2007, 08:14 PM
ElPhoenix ElPhoenix is offline
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Default Re: AA on a safe board, villain takes strange line

No, I don't get why you can't fold because you put him on a set. He has a set basically everytime here.

fold ftw!
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